090
FXUS64 KJAN 251137 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
637 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Today and Tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis
showed the circulation around a rather amplified trough extending
south across the ArkLaTex region from a closed low centered over the
mid Mississippi valley. Several subtle shortwaves were noted poised
to round the base of the trough and across our CWA within the
resulting southwest flow. One such shortwave was moving over our CWA
and helping to redevelop convection along and south of a weak cold
front that surface analysis had sagging into central MS. The 00Z Wed
JAN sounding still showed a warm moist airmass in place with a PWAT
of 1.87in. Hi-res models suggest the convection will continue to
increase this morning until the shortwave shifts northeast of
Mississippi later this morning. There will likely be a brief lull in
the convection around noon before the next shortwave combines with
daytime heating and the cold front to redevelop convection early
this is afternoon. The cold front is expected to be south or just
pushing south of our CWA by evening ending the rain chances. Dry
weather is expected by midnight and cooler and drier air will filter
into our CWA. This will lead to cooler than normal morning lows with
a few locations bottoming out in the upper 50s in our north. /22/

Long Term (Thurs-Tues):

Wet pattern continues for the ArkLaMiss region Thursday as a closed-
low situates over the Ozarks and a washed out frontal boundary hangs
around the area. In the southeast Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm
Helene is expected to become a hurricane/major hurricane before
landfall. Direct impacts from Helene is not expected for the CWA,
but will help transport tropical moisture into the region.

Both low pressure systems are expected to provide sufficient
moisture to the area to keep isolated/scattered showers in the
forecast through Saturday. Areas east of I-55 and north of I-20 has
the greatest potential (15-50%) to see rainfall. Post landfall,
Helene will absorb into the main flow and the closed-low will
gradually move towards the northeast Sunday. Drier conditions and
seasonal temperatures will settle in once the closed-low migrates
northward at the start of the new week. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Focus initially will be on the storm/precip activity across the
south and associated restrictions. There`s no one prevailing
conditions this morning as sites are mostly VFR (despite clouds)
with lower conditions mixed in and varying with time. As we moved
through mid morning, restricted conditions will improve and we
will prevail VFR by midday/afternoon through the TAF period. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  64  82  62 /  60  10  10  20
Meridian      82  63  81  62 /  70  20  20  30
Vicksburg     84  63  83  61 /  30  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   89  67  85  64 /  50  20  10  10
Natchez       84  63  81  61 /  40  10   0   0
Greenville    82  60  81  62 /  20   0  10  20
Greenwood     83  60  83  62 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SW/CME