Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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504 FXUS64 KJAN 171144 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 644 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Through tonight: Deep layer moisture continues to increase across our area on the western periphery of a ridge. Within this regime, an MCV remnant from Sunday`s convection has been slowly lifting northward across MS overnight and has helped incite scattered shower activity across the area. With the addition of fuel from insolation later today along with additional convergence bands associated with the Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance, considerable coverage of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated throughout the day. While locally heavy downpours will be possible given 2+ in. PWs, this activity looks to be progressive enough to minimize the threat for widespread flooding. It is possible isolated spots could pick up a few inches of rain, as indicated by recent CAM runs, but most areas should be able to handle these amounts. Though precip coverage will generally decrease after sunset, mesoscale forcing may help sustain some shower activity well into tonight. With added clouds and rain today, conditions will be milder, with many areas unlikely to reach the 90 degree mark. /DL/ Tuesday Through Next Weekend: Tuesday a strong 595dam mid level ridge will be centered over the mid-atlantic states at the start of the long term period. We can expect to see southerly wind flow that will keep moisture constant with rain and storm chances through mid-week. These rain and storm chances will mainly be focused along our southern counties and the highest rain totals will be along the coast nearer to the tropical airmass coming from the Gulf of Mexico. As the high pressure system moves up the east coast it will expand through much of the mid MS valley region through the end of the long term period. Simultaneously a disturbance in the southwestern portions of the Gulf of Mexico will likely transition into a tropical depression, however the system looks to track westward across Mexico. It is unlikely that our area sees any impacts. Thursday-Sunday: Ridging at the surface and aloft will help mitigate rain chances as the more moist tropical airmass will be in place further west southwest as the disturbance/depression continues its track west through Mexico. By next weekend the NHC has an area of low pressure forming just east of the coast of Florida. This system is forecast to move westward and may have our area seeing showers and storms by Sunday. Through the longterm period we can expect to see seasonably warm temps with mid 90s high temperatures expected through late week./KP/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A patchy IFR/LIFR stratus deck encompasses mainly portions of south MS this morning. Low ceilings should lift or mix out by mid-morning. In addition, scattered SHRA are ongoing across the area, and coverage will increase during the day with TS also possible. Brief categorical reductions are possible within TS and heavier showers. Rain coverage will decrease tonight. Additional ceiling reductions are possible late tonight into early Tue morning, mainly across south MS. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 90 73 87 73 / 70 20 10 0 Meridian 91 71 89 72 / 60 20 10 0 Vicksburg 90 73 87 72 / 70 20 20 0 Hattiesburg 90 73 88 73 / 80 40 20 0 Natchez 88 72 84 72 / 80 20 30 10 Greenville 90 74 90 74 / 70 20 10 0 Greenwood 90 74 90 74 / 70 20 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/KP