Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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112 FXUS64 KJAN 161740 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Today through tonight: Primary weather concerns in the near term include fog development (this morning and possibly again Tue morning) and the potential for locally heavy rainfall over mainly the northeast half of the area. Concerning fog: Fog has developed as expected over mainly the southwest half of the forecast area in the humid boundary layer, and will keep the current limited dense fog graphic going as a few observations of dense fog are being noted. May need a dense fog advisory for some locations, but it seems overall, visibility is remaining above a 1/4 mile. Given the persistent pattern and weakening low level flow, another round of fog will be possible early Tue morning. Concerning rainfall: A persistent rex block type weather pattern, anchored by a strong high centered over the Great Lakes/New England areas and a low that has persisted over the Lower MS Valley region, continues in the near term. The latest guidance indicate that the low will fill and weaken as a potential tropical cyclone near the South Atlantic coast takes over as the primary low circulation in the rex block pattern. Before the weakening fully takes place, a highly moist convergence axis (precipitable water ~ 1.9 inches) in southeast low level flow will maintain a band of showers over east central/north central MS. Highly localized heavy rainfall rates are possible, but flash flooding is generally not expected with weakening low. Otherwise, given considerable cloud cover and areas of rainfall, temperature ranges will be somewhat small and a below climatological normal. /EC/ Tuesday through early next week: Early morning hi-res guidance continue to show a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. This combined with the presence of tropical moisture will allow for afternoon/early evening scattered showers/thunderstorms generally south of I-20. Forecast confidence is much higher compared to the previous day as the latest GFS/NAM holds on rain chances through Tuesday evening. Current HREF guidance is starting to hint at some widespread patchy fog potential across much of our forecast area. Went ahead and added fog into the forecast for Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Could see a Dense Fog Advisory being issued around this timeframe if things pan out. Fog trends will continued to be monitored as we get closer to Tuesday evening. Heading into Wednesday, global guidance continues to show a rex block pattern evident of over the east CONUS which should keep our forecast area dry and help suppress any rain potential. In addition, temperatures could climb into the upper 80s with a few spots across the NW Delta reaching in the low 90s. Went ahead and bumped up temperatures slightly given 850 mb temps (between 14 and 16 deg C) supportive of a slightly warmer solution. With the ground moist from leftover rain and stagnant conditions expected, patchy fog is likely for the next few days. By Sunday, warm conditions will make a return to the area with slightly above normal temperatures near 90/70 returning to the area. Heading into the new work week, future global guidance hints at a upper low pushing east across the Ohio River Valley. On the southern periphery of the upper low is a cold front that is forecasted to push east across the Southern Plains and towards the southeast CONUS. This combined with limited tropical moisture from the Gulf will re-introduce some low end rain chances (between 15-20%) mainly for areas along and east of I-55 by Monday afternoon. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Low CIGS are resulting in slowly improving flight categories through 18Z today but overall, morning MVFR/IFR conditions will continue to improve to MVFR/VFR through 09Z though scattered SHRA/TSRA will persist through 02Z. After that time, ceilings will have fallen across the area with patchy, intermittent fog reducing CIG/VIS to MVFR/IFR. After 15Z, conditions improve and VFR will prevail. Easterly winds prevail through the period, under 10kts through 02Z and under 5 kts thereafter. /86/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 85 67 88 / 60 30 0 10 Meridian 66 86 65 88 / 50 20 0 10 Vicksburg 68 85 67 87 / 40 20 0 0 Hattiesburg 70 86 69 90 / 70 50 0 20 Natchez 68 84 68 88 / 20 30 0 10 Greenville 66 85 64 86 / 50 10 0 0 Greenwood 66 87 65 88 / 30 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/CR/LP