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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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227 FXUS64 KJAN 052000 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Rest of this evening through Saturday... Afternoon analysis indicates frontal zone sinking southward across the region, leading to widespread showers & storm development across the Natchez Trace corridor & southward. This is in response to a highly destabilized & moist tropical environment, favoring tropical- like downpours & QPF maxima of >3-4" common, with locally higher amounts possible. The ongoing "Limited" for flash flooding remains valid into this evening around 10PM or so. There have been a few cores that have sparked up there or oriented orthogonal to light west-northwest low-level shear, so some strong-isolated severe storms remain possible through the evening. Expect convection to wind down slowly overnight, with a majority of thunder potential gone around 9-10PM & some showers persisting through around midnight. HRRR indicates some redevelopment in the wake of this ongoing line, but current radar trends seem to be focused further northwest. There could still be some isolated potential in the wake, but likely not as vigorous, unless moving through untapped thermodynamic profiles. With clouds & deep moisture, near to seasonably warm lows in the low-mid 70s are expected. As the shortwave trough swings across the northeast & another into the northern Plains, the mid-level ridge will flatten & build more into the northeast Gulf. This will also be moderated by Tropical Storm Beryl, which should gradually become more organized into the weekend across the Bay of Campeche into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on the trek near International Border & south Texas coast. This should keep a deep, anomalous & near climatological maximum moisture profiles of PWs of 2.25-2.5 inches. Expect rain chances to slowly begin to creep up before midday, becoming more scattered near midday & widespread south of I-20 into Saturday aftn. Can`t rule out some stronger storms again into the aftn-evening hours. HREF prob match mean of >3" are lower than today but remain possible in the Hwy 84 to I-59 corridors. Holding off any introduction for flash flooding in the HWO graphics at this point. Even with more seasonable highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, sfc dewpoints pooling in the 77-80 degree range will again favor some potential increased heat stress for areas along & south of I-20 & east of the MS River. Added a "Limited" heat in the HWO graphics, with heat indices peaking near or in excess of 105F briefly. Held off on a heat advisory for now as convection will modulate the potential, but will need to be reevaluated. /DC/ Saturday night and Sunday: Though a surface front will sag briefly into the northern portion of the area this weekend, it appears any relief in the form of lower dewpoints will mainly be confined to the Hwy 82 corridor and northward. A moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and PW of 2-2.5 inches will remain entrenched across the remainder of the area. Showers and thunderstorms ongoing from the daytime Saturday will linger into the early evening across mainly south MS and central LA before diminishing overnight. Then another round of showers and storms is likely with daytime heating on Sunday. Ultimately, the front will begin to retreat northward by the daytime Sunday. Though daytime temps Sunday may be limited by increasing coverage of clouds and convection, there may still be enough opportunity across southern portions of the area for early heating to result in heat indices rising to near critical thresholds. For this reason, we will maintain the limited heat stress hazard graphic into Sunday. Monday through next Friday: As an upper level trough persists over the central part of the country and a more subtle ridge axis extends from the northern Gulf to along the East Coast, southwesterly to westerly upper flow will continue over our area for much of next week. This pattern will help to maintain a steady feed of deep layer moisture across our area, which will keep at least scattered diurnal convection around each day. We continue to monitor what will happen with the remnants of Beryl, as this may help to enhance rain chances particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. Toward the end of the week, the eastern ridge may begin to wield greater influence, which could bring warmer and drier conditions. Of course, we must talk about those pesky heat indices. With higher rain chances especially earlier in the week, uncertainty is high with respect to peak temps and heat indices each day. However, at least limited heat stress issues may persist especially over the southern half of the area next week. /DL/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Main aviation concerns this aftn again will be SHRA & TSRA coverage, with more scattered to numerous ongoing across a large portion of sites, outside of GLH & GWO. Some of these could contain gusty/variable wind, upwards of 40-50mph & drops to IFR flight categories at worst. Most thunder should wind down by 06/02-04Z & SHRA before 06/06Z. MVFR-IFR ceilings/stratus, with some LIFR psbl, is psbl at east-southeast TAF sites of MEI, PIB & HBG & can`t be ruled out on the fringes at JAN, HKS, & HEZ. Flight restrictions should improve by 06/14-16Z, with some increase in SHRA for central to southern TAF sites. Light northerly winds, at times variable, will prevail through most of the period through midday Saturday. More SHRA & TSRA are psbl into Saturday aftn at most TAF sites. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 74 90 74 90 / 50 50 10 50 Meridian 73 93 73 92 / 60 60 20 60 Vicksburg 73 90 74 89 / 60 50 10 40 Hattiesburg 76 93 76 94 / 50 80 30 70 Natchez 73 88 74 90 / 60 70 20 50 Greenville 73 92 73 90 / 30 10 0 30 Greenwood 73 93 74 91 / 30 20 0 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/DL/DC