Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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735 FXUS62 KJAX 250624 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 224 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 225 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 MVFR visibilities are expected to develop during the predawn hours at VQQ. A brief period of MVFR visibilities will also be possible around or just after sunrise at GNV, but confidence was too low to include in the overnight TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the regional terminals through at least 18Z. Showers and thunderstorms will develop near the regional terminals along sea breeze boundaries during the afternoon hours, with activity possibly lingering past 00Z at the inland terminals. PROB30 groups were maintained at all of the regional terminals for brief wind gusts up to 30 knots and MVFR visibilities, mainly after 19Z. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail again by 03Z Wednesday. Southwesterly surface winds sustained at 5 knots or less overnight will become west- southwesterly after sunrise, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots after 14Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will begin moving inland a little earlier on Tuesday afternoon, resulting in surface winds shifting to east- southeasterly and increasing to 10-15 knots before 18Z at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals. The Gulf coast sea breeze should cross the GNV terminal before 21Z, with winds shifting to southwest and increasing to around 10 knots outside of any developing convection. Surface winds will shift to southeasterly before 21Z at the Duval County terminals. Light southwesterly winds sustained at 5 knots or less are then expected after 02Z Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and a series of troughs which will each stall just to the northwest of the area this period. This pattern will yield a prevailing southwest flow. It will be an unsettled period, with afternoon convection initiated far inland, aided by the Gulf sea breeze. The east coast sea breeze will make a little progress in the afternoons, but will struggle to get past I95 due to push of the Gulf breeze. A secondary max in convection will be possible in the afternoons due to convergence of sea breezes near I95. Any activity which develops during the afternoons is expected to dissipate during the evening hours, with nights mainly dry. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A pattern change is expected this period, with the high becoming located more toward the east northeast. Troughs are still expected to move into the southeastern US and stall to the northwest this period. The prevailing flow will largely be from the south, with both east and west coast sea breezes becoming active. Afternoon merges of the sea breezes will be possible. Any activity which develops in the afternoons will largely diminish during the evening hours with loss of diurnal heating, with mainly dry nights. Temperatures and precipitation chances will be above normal this period. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Persistent troughing will be to the northwest of the area this week. High pressure to the east through Thursday, will move more toward the northeast late in the week. Winds will approach advisory levels this afternoon and evening, and winds will be below headline levels the rest of the week. Rip Currents: Moderate Today. Tuesday, Low SE GA and Moderate NE FL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 99 75 97 74 / 30 10 50 20 SSI 92 78 92 78 / 40 20 50 20 JAX 96 75 94 75 / 60 20 60 10 SGJ 94 76 92 76 / 60 30 70 20 GNV 95 73 93 74 / 80 30 90 10 OCF 95 75 93 76 / 80 40 90 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$