Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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109 FXUS62 KJAX 251207 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 807 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 804 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The region is between high pressure to the east, and a trough to the north northwest Today. Between these two features a fairly light, southwest low level flow is expected. With this flow pretty light, the east coast sea breeze will be able to move inland this afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate late this morning on the Gulf coast sea breeze. This activity will then increase into the afternoon as the Gulf sea breeze moves further inland during the heat of the day. The east coast sea breeze will become active during the early afternoon. The sea breezes should meet well inland between I75 and I95, where an amplification in activity is expected to develop. With the overall flow fairly light, this convection will then largely diminish in place, or slowly drift east during the evening with loss of diurnal heating. Highs above normal this afternoon, coupled with humid air across much of the area will result in heat indices in the advisory range. The exception will be far inland SE GA, where the temperatures will be warmest, but drier airmass will be in place. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday and Thursday) Issued at 435 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Drier air will linger over SE GA, with PWATs around 1.5-1.75" limiting precipitation coverage to scattered, whereas NE FL will have ample moisture (PWATs 2.0"+) moving in with the help of southwest flow. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon/evening as the Gulf sea breeze pushes far inland. The east coast sea breeze will not make it far inland, however it will provide slight relief to the heat along the coast. Highs Wednesday will again be above normal, reaching near 10 degrees for portions of inland SE GA, with highs in the lower to upper 90s elsewhere. Temperatures will trend downward a tad on Thursday, but still remain above normal as southwest flow and an approaching front from the north helps numerous showers and thunderstorms develop area-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 435 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Temperatures will remain above normal during this period, with daily highs in the lower to upper 90s. Similar setup expected each day Saturday onward as winds shift from SW to S/SE, allowing both sea breezes push inland and interact, higher precipitation chances will remain over NE FL, with more scattered coverage daily in SE GA. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions expected Today and Tonight. Scattered afternoon TSRA expected with sea breezes after 20z, decreasing in coverage after 00z. Better chance for this at inland TAF sites than coastal sites...so have just VCTS during afternoon for KSSI and KSGJ, with a TEMPO group for 20z-00z period for inland TAF sites and VCTS for a few hours after 00z. Light SW winds expected during the morning, shifting to the SE 5-10kts with sea breeze during the afternoon, except remaining light SW through afternoon at KGNV. && .MARINE... Issued at 435 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A frontal boundary will stall over the southeastern states today, with prevailing offshore winds this morning becoming onshore towards noon over the near shore waters as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will possibly develop over our local waters late this afternoon and early this evening. Outside of thunderstorm activity, southerly winds will briefly surge this evening before shifting to southwesterly while diminishing overnight. Speeds should remain below Caution levels during afternoon and evening wind surges, and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail throughout our local waters during the next several days. Southwesterly winds will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of another weakening frontal boundary that will stall and dissipate to the northwest of our local waters by Friday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Prevailing winds will become southeasterly by the weekend as the axis of Atlantic high pressure briefly lifts northward, with another frontal boundary then expected to enter the southeastern states early next week, which will shift prevailing winds back to southwesterly. Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds developing early this afternoon will combine with a lingering east-southeasterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches. Low wave heights at the southeast GA beaches should keep the risk low through Thursday, with a low risk also anticipated at the northeast FL beaches on Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 101 74 99 74 / 20 10 40 20 SSI 95 78 90 77 / 20 10 30 20 JAX 98 73 95 75 / 50 40 60 20 SGJ 93 76 92 76 / 60 40 60 20 GNV 96 74 94 74 / 70 70 70 20 OCF 95 75 93 75 / 60 50 60 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133- 136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522. GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$