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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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318 FXUS62 KJAX 270513 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 113 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Best support for continued convection this evening will be near the coast, south of interstate 10. This convection will dissipate later this evening, with a dry night forecast. Lows in the middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Unusually hot and humid conditions for late June will stick around through Friday with afternoon convection firing along the sea breezes. Fairly deep southwesterly flow will be predominant amid a deamplifying upper trough that will eventually be sheared being sandwiched between two prominent upper ridges, one to the south and another over the Southern Plains. Under this regime, a the Gulf sea breeze will be dominant, likely kicking off an early bout of convection through the late morning and early afternoon as it races across to the northeast and collides with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze each day. Weakening flow by Friday will allow a bit more inland penetration of the Atlantic sea breeze realigning the corridor of likely PoPs a bit further inland along and west of the I- 95. Main change between today and the Thursday/Friday period will be a plume of moisture renegergizing PWATs to 2"+. Given this moisture surge, shower and storm coverage will become numerous as sea breeze and outflows interact during the afternoons. Convection will be mainly diurnal in nature but a few persistent showers may push later into the evening along a fizzling boundary laying across portions of SE GA. Concerning storm hazards will be downburst winds, mostly in the 30-50 mph neighborhood, and heavy downpours and localized flooding concerns. Temperatures will be hot with peak heat index values in the 103-109 degree range each day. The hottest areas will be right along the coast where the sea breeze push could usher in dewpoints closer to 80F. Lows will be fairly balmy each night, hovering the mid/upper 70s to 80 along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Diurnal convection, dominated by sea breezes and their interactions, continues through the weekend. Weakening flow will promote an inland push of both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze, reducing storm chances for coastal zones over the weekend. Wet period will continue into early next week but as upper ridging gradually builds from the west and a shortwave attempts to ride along its periphery and into the region. Guidance is maintain and easterly wave tracking across the southern Gulf and western Caribbean next week, which may also boost shower and storm chances next week amid a well moistened profile. Abnormally hot and humid conditions remain entrenched and will not budge through next week with potential for Excessive Heat headlines, not unreasonable amid the lengthy stretch of heat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the morning for all the TAF sites. PROB30s are in place for diurnal thunderstorm activity beginning in the early afternoon for GNV, and later in the afternoon for the rest of the sites. Convection will taper off after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 High pressure ridging over the area with fairly consistent troughing will create winds predominately from the southwest in the mornings and overnight and then shifting to south- southeasterly in the afternoons as the sea-breeze makes its way onshore. Daily afternoon showers and storms are possible over the local waters into the weekend that could linger into the evening hours. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 95 74 94 75 / 60 30 50 30 SSI 94 78 92 78 / 50 30 50 30 JAX 96 76 96 75 / 60 20 60 20 SGJ 96 77 94 77 / 60 20 60 30 GNV 94 74 94 73 / 60 10 60 10 OCF 93 76 94 75 / 70 20 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$