Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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900 FXUS62 KJAX 212301 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 701 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 656 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure will stretch down the east coast and across the area Tonight. Skies along the NE FL coast will be partly cloudy, otherwise skies will trend toward clear. Temperatures will have a broad range Tonight, due to onshore flow across the relatively warmer coastal waters. Lows in the mid 60s will be common inland, and in the lower to mid 70s along the Atlantic coast. Coastal Flood Advisory to continue through at least Sunday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure over the region will continue to dominate the weather pattern through Monday with PWAT values measuring between 0.9 and 1.6 inches. Prevailing flow will be primarily out of the north and northwest as high pressure gradually shifts more towards the east. Potential for isolated coastal showers to develop along Flagler and St Johns Counties through this period with a chance for patchy early morning fog to develop over inland areas. High temperatures for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week will be in the lower 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Initially dry weather will give way to more moist conditions as high pressure continues moving eastward and prevailing flow shifts about to become more out of the south, resulting in increased chances for showers and storms for the end of the week. Potential tropical formation in the gulf is still listed as having a 60% chance of formation in the next 7 days by the NHC, however the precise track and timing of any possible tropical developments remain ambiguous at this time. Daily high temperatures will experience a cooling trend this as the week progresses with max temps dropping to be below the seasonal average by the end of the forecast period. Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Prevailing VFR conditions expected through at least 06z. Fog is expected to develop during the overnight, and should produce a period of restrictions at most TAF sites. At this time, looks like too much wind for fog production at KSSI and KSGJ. Once the morning fog lifts, prevailing VFR conditions expected for Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure building from the north will usher a brief surge of northeast winds across the waters today and elevate seas; small craft are urged to exercise caution. A weaker pressure pattern will begin Sunday and continue through the middle of next week as high pressure extends to the east. Late next week, an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical disturbance next week. Rip Currents: High Risk for area beaches today becoming Moderate overnight and into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 71 85 73 86 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 67 88 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 72 86 74 88 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 66 90 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 67 91 72 93 / 0 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ033-038-124- 125-132-133-137-138-225-325. High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-133-138. GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154- 166. AM...None. && $$