834
FXUS62 KJAX 161019
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
619 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Morning fog is expected this morning, mainly north of I10, as cloud
cover over north central FL will be a limiting factor there. Not
expecting widespread dense fog, but a few locations could become
dense for a short time around dawn.

High pressure will build to the north northeast this period. This
will enhance the onshore flow pattern. With an onshore flow, the sea
breeze will push inland earlier in the day. Convection is expected
to intiate on the sea breeze over eastern portions of NE FL later
this morning, due to the sea breeze convergence and diurnal heating.
This activity will then shift inland through the afternoon, as the
flow pushes it along. Due to the strength of the onshore flow,
the Gulf sea breeze will only push to just shy of the forecast
area, but may still help to strengthen activity once it reaches
the I75 corridor. This activity will continue through the
afternoon into early evening, then diminish with loss of diurnal
heating. Clearing skies for Tonight. Could see patchy fog develop
again overnight, but will depend on where rain falls Today, and
how much cloud lingers past the day time hours.

Highs will range from the lower to mid 90s inland, with mid to
upper 80s along the coast. Lows in the lower to mid 70s are
expected, except closer to 80 at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Monday...Relatively strong high pressure center building into
the Carolinas north of the region will continue to increase the
Easterly flow off the Atlantic with breezy winds at 15-25G35 mph
along the Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20G30 mph over inland
areas during the afternoon hours. Likely expecting a high risk
of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast. This flow pattern will
push scattered showers and isolated storms into the coastal areas
through the day and into the inland areas during the afternoon
hours with gusty winds as the main threat from storm activity. Max
temps will be close to normal values in the upper 80s along the
Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over inland
areas.

Monday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing
onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist
over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along
the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps
elevated.

Tuesday...Not much change in the pattern as high pressure remains
locked in north of the region and breezy to almost windy easterly
flow will continue at 15-25G35-40mph range at the Atlantic Coast
with a high risk of rip current and 10-20G30-35mph range over
inland areas during the afternoon hours. This flow pattern will
continue to stream rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms
from the coastal waters and into land areas through the day with
gusty winds the main threat from storm activity over inland areas
during the afternoon hours. Temps at or slightly below normal
levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic
Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas.

Tuesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing
onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist
over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along
the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps
elevated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Wednesday/Thursday...GFS/ECMWF model runs are still trying to spin
up a low pressure system underneath mid level trough/disturbance
pushing quickly westward from the Bahamas into the FL peninsula.
Still way too early if this system becomes actual tropical low
pressure system or more likely a disorganized area of widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms with a locally heavy rainfall
and strong gusty wind potential during this period. Bottom line
during this period will be an increase in rainfall chances to
50-80% with numerous to widespread showers and embedded heavy
storms pushing onshore at times with strong gusty winds as the
main threat. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal
levels with the increased rainfall chances with highs in the
mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and still
reaching into the lower 90s over inland areas. With most of the
local NE FL/SE GA area having below normal rainfall so far this
month, this will be welcome rainfall in many locations, but
localized flood potential will mainly exist in urban areas and
along the Atlantic Coast during high tide cycles.

Friday/Saturday...In the wake of departing low pressure system, a
weaker high pressure ridge will build in just north of the region
and still expect near breezy East-Southeast winds at 10-15G20-25
mph, but more normal East Coast sea breeze convection expected as
it moves inland both days and lingering deeper tropical moisture
will still lead to above normal rainfall chances in the 40-70%
range with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. Max
temps bounce back near and slightly above normal levels with highs
in the upper 80s/near 90 along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor
with lower to middle 90s over inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A few bands of stratus will move in off the Atlantic early this
morning. These clouds could result in a few restrictions at
coastal TAF sites early in this period. Convection will initiate
later this morning just inland of KSGJ. This activity will then
spread west across NE FL through the afternoon. The KGNV site will
have the best chance for restrictions in showers and storms this
afternoon into early evening. This convection will dissipate later
this evening, with clearing skies for the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure will be located to the northeast through the middle of
next week. This will result in a prolonged period of onshore flow,
with Small Craft Advisory criteria conditions possible beginning
Tuesday. Long range models indicate a wave of low pressure moving
west toward the FL peninsula later in the week. At this point,
there is a good bit of uncertainty regarding how strong this wave
may become, so stay aware of latest information.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, then high for Monday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  93  69 /  10   0  20  10
SSI  87  79  86  76 /  10   0  40  20
JAX  91  75  89  73 /  10   0  50  20
SGJ  88  77  88  75 /  20   0  60  30
GNV  92  72  91  71 /  40   0  40  10
OCF  91  73  93  71 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$