Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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112 FXUS62 KJAX 250006 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 806 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf This afternoon and Tonight...Forecast on track this afternoon as hot and humid West to Southwest flow pattern will push Max Temps into the mid/upper 90s and combine with dew points in the 70s to produce widespread peak Heat Indices into the 105-110 range, with Heat Advisory levels (HI>=108) expected along the I-95 corridor (Atlantic Coastal Counties) and I-10 corridor (Portions of Inland NE FL) this afternoon. Expect the W-SW flow to delay the onset of the East Coast sea breeze moving inland until the late afternoon/early evening hours, which will combine with shortwave trough aloft, currently over GA/SC region that will track SE into the local area and help to trigger scattered to numerous showers/storms with isolated severe storms possible with damaging downburst winds of 50-60 mph possible with storm mergers or storm outflows that interact with the East Coast sea breeze. Slow and erratic storm motion around 10 mph or less will also promote localized flood threat in urban areas. With the late start to convection today, expect storms to continue over inland areas until around midnight, with convection fading during the early overnight hours and mainly just fair skies and humid conditions towards sunrise Tuesday morning. Warm overnight lows in the middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and a series of troughs which will each stall just to the northwest of the area this period. This pattern will yield a prevailing southwest flow. It will be an unsettled period, with afternoon convection initiated far inland, aided by the Gulf sea breeze. The east coast sea breeze will make a little progress in the afternoons, but will struggle to get past I95 due to push of the Gulf breeze. A secondary max in convection will be possible in the afternoons due to convergence of sea breezes near I95. Any activity which develops during the afternoons is expected to dissipate during the evening hours, with nights mainly dry. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A pattern change is expected this period, with the high becoming located more toward the east northeast. Troughs are still expected to move into the southeastern US and stall to the northwest this period. The prevailing flow will largely be from the south, with both east and west coast sea breezes becoming active. Afternoon merges of the sea breezes will be possible. Any activity which develops in the afternoons will largely diminish during the evening hours with loss of diurnal heating, with mainly dry nights. Temperatures and precipitation chances will be above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Evening showers and storms will continue to develop along the sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence with storms over TAF sites expected to begin diminishing by around 03z. Lingering showers will disperse overnight with mild winds in place through about 18-20z with convection and building wind speeds towards the end of the forecasted period. Potential for reduced visibilities at VQQ and GNV in the early morning hours on Tuesday, between about 07-11z. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Persistent troughing will be to the northwest of the area this week. High pressure to the east through Thursday, will move more toward the northeast late in the week. Winds will approach advisory levels this afternoon and evening, and winds will be below headline levels the rest of the week. Rip Currents: Moderate Today. Tuesday, Low SE GA and Moderate NE FL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 99 75 97 / 20 30 10 50 SSI 78 92 78 92 / 30 40 20 50 JAX 76 96 75 94 / 50 60 20 60 SGJ 76 94 76 92 / 40 60 30 70 GNV 74 95 73 93 / 40 80 30 90 OCF 74 95 75 93 / 50 80 40 90 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$