Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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066 FXUS62 KJAX 230131 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 931 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Some T`storms continue to off the coast, near St Augustine, and over portions of the Suwannee river valley, but should fade by midnight with scattered to broken mid level clouds lingering until near sunrise while showers hang near the coast through much of the night. Light southerly winds expected to turn near calm late tonight as the remnants of a weak low spiral north of the Altamaha river near the GA coast. Not expecting fog. Lows will be muggy again in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to around 80 at the coast. Highs Saturday will rise into the upper 80s along the immediate coast. Near tropical airmass levels (1.8 to 2.0 inches of Precipitable Water), strong diurnal heating, and lift from the inland moving seabreezes will create scattered to numerous thunderstorms Sunday with locally gusty convective winds 40-50 mph and locally heavy rainfall amounts possible. Highs will be hotter with low 90s at the coast and mid 90s farther inland west of highway 301. Winds will be SE behind the Atlantic seabreeze around 10 mph with some higher gusts to 15-20 mph along the coast while winds stay south to southwesterly further inland with the Gulf seabreeze lifting to I-75 by late afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Drier air on the west side of the low just north of the Altamaha River in Liberty County have really limited land based convection with drier continental airmass and subsidence with most convection being maritime based. This low is forecast to remain stationary or meander very slowly around the area with a slight drift to the west for the next 18 hours depending on the model. Have tempered precipitation chances for the rest of the this afternoon to mainly to isolated to widely scattered and mainly east of highway 301. By late tonight the Bermuda High may slide a bit farther east, ushering in a light WSW flow. This could lead to more storms in the morning across the Gulf that drift onshore into the Suwannee Valley during the pre-dawn hours. With the low in the vicinity of interior SE GA another convective area may develop toward daybreak on the east side of the inland low with PWATs between 1.75 to just over 2 inches. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 124 PM Sat Jun 22 2024 An upper trough remains stationary just offshore of the FL/GA coastline while Bermuda ridge sets up to our east...with northwest flow aloft over the forecast area with upstream ridging building in. We will have a predominate W-SW flow regime Sunday and Monday with an active Gulf flow and sea breeze. On Sunday, the west coast sea breeze may meet up with east coast seabreeze near I-95 during the afternoon. On Monday, looks to be more of a straight forward Gulf of Mexico west seabreeze regime. Both days there will be scattered to numerous showers and storms with greatest coverage across NE FL. Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected through the short term period with mid/upper level ridging extending over our area from the west with ridge retrograding slightly on Monday. 850mb temperatures will rise to 21-22C Sunday and Monday, likely to translate to above normal high temperatures in the mid 90s inland, near 90 coast Sunday, with mid-upper 90s inland Monday, lower 90s coast...a few locations in interior SE GA could peak just shy or near 100 degrees. Afternoon heat index values each day will likely be in the 95-105 range. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The upper pattern changes little Tuesday until Wednesday Night and Thursday when an upper trough digs SE toward our forecast area, With a moist environment in place, and active sea breezes with above normal inland temps, expecting to see scattered to numerous showers/storms each afternoon. Above normal high and low temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday...with some areas particularly in interior SE GA seeing high temperatures near 100 degrees.... and with afternoon heat index values of 100-105 each day. Current consensus guidance maintains above normal temperatures right through Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 823 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The 00Z TAF period will include some MVFR/IFR restrictions for T`storms near CRG and JAX that should fade by 02Z with VCSH along the coast north and south of JAX/CRG and at GNV through 06Z. Light southerly winds tonight will settle to under 5 knots inland after 06Z and remain 5-10 knots along the coast with VFR ceilings and clearing mid level clouds late. Sunday, showers along the coast will move inland and turn to convection with VCTS at all sites after 18-20Z with PROB30 groups for MVFR restrictions at all TAF sites Sunday afternoon after 18Z. South to southwesterly winds 5-8 knots will turn southeasterly behind the Atlantic seabreeze at SGJ,CRG and southerly at JAX, SSI, and VQQ 17-20Z 8-10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 High pressure will shift towards Bermuda this weekend with decreasing winds and seas with a more typical summer sea breeze- like pattern returning into early next week. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over our local waters this weekend and into next week as prevailing winds become southerly ahead of a weakening surface trough that will settle over the southeastern states through midweek. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA beaches as winds shift more southerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 95 75 98 / 20 40 10 40 SSI 75 91 78 95 / 40 60 20 40 JAX 74 93 75 97 / 40 70 20 50 SGJ 74 92 75 95 / 30 70 30 50 GNV 72 93 73 94 / 30 70 20 70 OCF 75 93 75 94 / 40 70 30 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$