Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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608 FXUS63 KJKL 270240 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1040 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hotter weather is expected to make a comeback by Friday and especially Saturday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values peaking around or in excess of 100F. - A passing cold front will bring likely rainfall to the area Saturday night into Sunday, followed by another shorter-lived cooldown for early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2024 The stronger storms have mostly died out with only one last cluster rolling east through the southern Cumberland Valley. Otherwise, showers (with an occasional lighting flash) will gradually diminish into the early overnight hours followed by some clearing. This will likely result in areas of low clouds and fog - locally dense - to develop. Have updated the forecast to fine tune the convection`s departure to the southeast through the night. Did also add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These adjustments, and the dropping of the severe watch, have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs. UPDATE Issued at 755 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2024 23Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky in the warm sector of a larger system just to the west of the state. This allowed the area to heat up with ample instability triggering several thunderstorm clusters - a few of which became severe. Much of the area is now worked over by the earlier, and current, convection as the next round approaches from the northwest. The latest CAMs guidance and radar extrapolation indicate that the Cumberland Valley will be most under the threat of severe weather - mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts. Have updated the PoPs and thunder chances through the night per this scenario along with beefing up the fog due to the added rains of this evening. Otherwise, temperatures are running in the low 80s in places spared the convection but in the low to mid 70s where the rain occurred. Meanwhile, amid generally light and variable winds (outside of any storms), dewpoints remain elevated in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most. With this update, in addition to the PoP and Wx adjustments have also included the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These changes have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with the earlier updates to the zones, HWO, and SAFs to account for the severe watch that remains in effect until 10 PM EDT. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 256 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2024 Current surface analysis is pretty busy as there`s multiple disturbances moving across the eastern CONUS. The most significant of them is a surface low moving across the Upper Great Lakes. Extending southwest from the occluding low is a stationary front. Also, riding along the boundary is another surface low moving out of the Ozarks. All of this is forecast to move toward the Commonwealth. Locally, a weak line of showers is moving across the northern tier of counties with a couple weak echos showing up along the Mountain Parkway. Also, temperatures across the area are already climbing into the upper-80s to low-90s which will maximize ahead of the cold front. This afternoon brings an upper-level trough that`ll pivot southeast toward the CWA this afternoon. That pivoting will push that aforementioned surface low and cold front toward the Commonwealth. The SPC has increased our severe weather risk to include much of the entire CWA minus a few cities along the KY/TN border. Forecast soundings from across the area continue to show somewhat favorable severe weather indices. Both MUCAPE, SBCAPE and DCAPE are all favorable for severe storms, steep low-level lapse rates are in place as well. Significant shear is slightly lacking but there`s enough out there to favor a few longer lasting storms. Lastly, PWs continue to run about 2" which if a storm is efficient enough will allow for some heavy rainfalls. The front will slowly track through the area this afternoon and overnight hours before exiting early early tomorrow morning. Widespread fog is possible tomorrow morning but will burn off with increasing daytime heating. Height rises ahead of surface high pressure is expected to build into the region for Thursday morning and persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures for Thursday will be slightly cooler with highs climbing into the mid-80s and overnight lows dropping into the upper-50s to low-60s which will bring an end to an active period. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 553 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2024 The models remain in generally good agreement through the middle of next week. Ridging will dominate across the southern third of the CONUS, with the center of this ridge establishing itself over the southern Plains through this weekend, before elongating and shifting east with time through next week, mostly maintaining the ongoing heat across the region. Meanwhile, bouts of passing short wave energy will skirt east, with the core of this energy affecting the northern tier of states across the CONUS. Still, residual short wave troughing will pass through the Ohio Valley at times, yielding intermittent threats of convection across our area, and at least some temporary relief from the hotter weather. The heat will be in full swing Friday and Saturday, with highs in the lower 90s, yielding peak heat indices of around 100 degrees for some locations on Friday, and between 100 and 105 degrees on Saturday. Lower PoP chances (20-30%) will be possible across the southeastern half of our area Friday afternoon. Better moisture return then ensues for Saturday, with most places seeing a good chance (50%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Overall, the best forcing and instability will be coincident Saturday night into Sunday, with PoPs peaking in the 70-80% range across our area during that time. Drier and temporarily cooler weather will return for the new work week behind the associated departing cold front. Highs will retreat to the 80s, while temperatures dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s at night. The heat will then make a comeback by Tuesday and Wednesday, with lower 90s returning. While a stray storm or two can not be ruled out Tuesday afternoon, the areal coverage looks to be pretty limited, due likely to capping associated with higher 500 mb heights over the region. As such, kept PoPs below 15% this go around. Chance PoPs (40%) will occur by Wednesday, with an increase in moisture ahead of another approaching cold front from the northwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are prevailing across the TAF sites in the midst of scattered clusters of thunderstorms. A cold front working into the area will maintain the shower and thunderstorm activity through 06Z/Thursday before tapering off northwest to southeast. Lower CIGS into the MVFR category are expected as the front approaches the area. Once precipitation tapers off, fog will be the main issue - likely bringing some MVFR to IFR visibilities to the area after 07Z persisting through 13Z before conditions improve slightly to MVFR into Thursday morning with a trend toward VFR thereafter. Aside from gusty winds near thunderstorms, light and variable winds are expected through the aviation period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...VORST/GREIF