708
FXUS63 KJKL 260931
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
531 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a potential for severe thunderstorms today and tonight,
  with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes
  possible.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible through the middle of the
  week, mainly during the afternoon.

- A cold front will usher cooler air into the area from Tuesday
  through Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 4 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024

High resolution guidance continues to signal the potential for
several rounds of showers and storms today and tonight. For early
this afternoon, warm air advection will pick up in the low levels.
Mass convergence ahead of this will cause scattered storms to
develop. There is some uncertainty as far as coverage, so kept
PoPs in the likely category for now. Despite moderate instability,
bulk shear remains rather low, so severe potential remains modest.

There may be a weakening convective system diving southeast
through the region late this afternoon into the evening. This will
likely be accompanied by some gusty winds and will be followed by
a cooler, more stable airmass.

Finally, a third line of convection will likely impact eastern
Kentucky late tonight. Wind fields will be much stronger with this
convection, leading to the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms. However, while bulk effective shear lifts to 40-50
knots, instability should remain somewhat modest due to the
previous convection during the day. Will need to monitor this
closely with future updates.

The cold front itself will finally make its way through the area
Monday. By then, wind fields will have decreased some... but
there remains enough instability for scattered showers and storms.
Suppose a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out with this
frontal convection, particularly in the southeast during the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 531 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2024

We are looking at a pattern change for the extended portion of
the forecast. Large slow moving mid/upper level trough/low will
rotate its way through the Great Lakes during the period, keeping
our area under the influence of northwest flow. There are a series
of short wave disturbances that round the base of the mean trough
that may impact our forecast area, providing what could be
described as a glancing blow Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
Strong upper level ridging, and surface high pressure will build
into the Ohio Valley by the very end of the forecast window.

Sensible weather features generally quiet weather as compared to
more recent days. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will
come to an end quickly Monday evening. The aforementioned
disturbances will clip our forecast area, bringing a low chance
(15-20% PoPs) of showers and thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon, generally to our eastern most zones.
Temperatures will average about normal through the period, with
afternoon highs around 80 through the period. The exception with
be Wednesday and Thursday, with daily highs in the low to mid 70s
thanks to a cool Canadian high pressure system. Highs climb back
into the low to mid 80 by the end of the forecast window.
Overnight lows will average around 50 degrees in our coolest
valley locations, and the m id to upper 50s along our ridges.
Other the the potential for thunderstorms, there are no hazards
for the extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2024

Largely VFR conditions are forecast during the period, with a
couple of localized exception. A few showers/thunderstorms with
sub-VFR conditions are possible late this afternoon and evening.
Valley fog is also expected to develop late tonight and last into
Sunday morning before dissipating. MOS guidance is hitting the fog
fairly hard at TAF sites. However, if precip does not occur, it
would seem to be more questionable. A TEMPO group for IFR
conditions has been used in the TAFS for several hours around
sunrise.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOGUE
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HOGUE