747
FXUS63 KJKL 252052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
452 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity returns for today and Wednesday.

- Next best chance of rain will be Wednesday into Wednesday
  evening.

- Hotter weather is expected to make a comeback by Friday and
  especially Saturday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s
  and heat index values peaking around or in excess of 100
  degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Current surface analysis is rather active but synoptically surface
high pressure is situated over the region. Mesoscale wise, an MCS,
from last night`s activity in the Upper Great Lakes, is continuing
to dive south-southeast toward the CWA. Dry air over the region is
causing the MCS to weaken as it approaches the CWA but a shower or
two my clip areas along and north of I-64. Those showers and storms
will linger over the next couple of hours before a brief lull in
activity is expected for a few hours this evening. Then CAMs try to
bring another round of showers and storms to the area as the western
half of the current MCS tries to dive southeast into the region
after 03Z and lingering through the early morning hours of Wednesday.

Wednesday brings about another round of showers and storms. A couple
small shortwave perturbations are revolving around a parent trough
that will bring a surface low across southern Canada and a cold
front through the CWA during the day Wednesday. The SPC has placed
areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway in a Slight Risk of
severe weather. The rest of the area is under a Marginal Risk of
severe weather for cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon. The
timing of the boundary will allow for the best instability building.
This is shown in forecast soundings as there`s decent forecast
severe weather indices in place across the area. Steep low and mid
level lapse rates are in place, instability ranging from 2,000 to
2,500 J/kg of CAPE in the afternoon is favorable, PW`s around 1.80"
(which if materialized could bring some heavy rainfall) even from
yesterday`s soundings, effective bulk shear has increased slightly
across the region which could help promote some longer-lived
stronger storms Wednesday afternoon. The biggest threat of the day
appears to be damaging wind, but large hail and possibly an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out. However, the potential for increased
cloud cover Wednesday morning could limit the ability to build in
the best instability which alone could limit the coverage of the
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will taper off from northwest to
southeast through the overnight Wednesday but an H850 shortwave is
forecast to develop with a surface feature riding along the
departing cold front. This secondary surface feature will keep
lingering shower and thunderstorm chances across the far eastern
third of the CWA through the end of the period.

Overall, the entire period will be highlighted by multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms with high temperatures remaining in the
mid-80s to low-90s and overnight lows in the upper-60s to mid-70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 451 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2024

The models are in good overall agreement with the long wave
pattern through early next week. A more stagnant pattern will be
in place across the southern half of the CONUS, as a ridge
gradually strengthens with time, mainly centering over the lower
Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, the pattern will be more
progressive across the northern half of the CONUS, as short wave
energy riding from west to east within the westerlies allow for
some bouts of unsettled weather. Eastern Kentucky will be on the
southern extent of this activity, with periods of building heat as
well as some better chances of convection this weekend.

PoPs will linger Thursday behind a slowly departing cold front,
mainly across our southeast. Temperatures will start out cooler,
with highs in mid 80s and lows Thursday night in the upper 50s and
lower 60s in the valleys. Hot weather returns for Friday, as 500
mb heights rise. Enough moisture may also come back to allow for
the threat of isolated convection (20%) across our south. Highs
will be in the low 90s, with a few mid 90s possible. Saturday will
be the overall hottest day, as highs will be similar to Friday,
while dew points climb to the low to mid 70s, yielding potential
heat indices of around 100 degrees at most locations. Given the
increased resultant instability in place, there will also be a
better chance of convection (50-60%) Saturday afternoon. A passing
cold front Sunday will bring our best overall rain chances,
peaking at 50-70%. A brief cool down follows into Monday, with
highs retreating to the 80s; however, a resurgence of higher 500
mb heights will bring lower 90s back to the area on Tuesday for
highs, with lower chance PoPs (20-40%) making a comeback as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing across the area and will persist
through much of the TAF period. Increasing and lowering CIGS are
expected over the next few hours as an MCS approaches the area.
However, the MCS is expected to continue to weaken as it
approaches the area with minimal chances for showers and storms.
Lingering cloud cover and the approach of a cold front will lower
CIGS even more across the area but remaining VFR. Opted to add
VCTS to all TAF sites after 12Z/Wednesday with VCTS being possible
at KSYM after 08Z and persisting through the period as the cold
front moves through the region. Lastly, south to southwesterly
winds at less than 10 knots are expected.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...VORST