116
FXUS63 KJKL 052050
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms through early this evening could produce
  locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.

- Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold
  front over the weekend.

- Warmer and more humid conditions will make a noticeable comeback
  on Monday and continue into next week, along with a potential
  for more thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Late this afternoon, narrows ridging extended from portions of
the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast across portions of the
southeastern Conus to southeast of the mid Atlantic coast with a
stronger ridge another near the west coast of the Conus and a
general area of broad troughing south from central Canada into the
western Great Lakes to south central Conus and MS Valley. A
shortwave trough ahead of the 500 mb trough axis was working
across portions of the OH Valley at this time with associated
convection that crossed the region from late in the morning into
the afternoon having largely departed to WV and VA. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was working across the Great
Lakes region with a trailing cold front working across western and
central KY to the Arklatex and further west toward the Southern
Plains. Behind this system a sfc high extended from the Plains
toward the mid MS Valley.

This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough working across the
region will depart to the east and northeast this evening. The 500
mb trough axis will remain across Central portions of the Conus
and west of the Commonwealth through Saturday night. Height rises
are expected to rise a bit on Saturday across the southeastern
Conus and into eastern KY, while little change in mid level
heights is expected late tonight as well as on Saturday night. At
the surface, the cold front will continue east this evening across
eastern KY and work into WV and VA overnight. Behind this system,
sfc high pressure will build east into the OH Valley and settle
over portions of the OH Valley and the Appalachians to end the
period.

Ahead of the front, isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening with
chances diminishing even near the WV and VA border not longer
after midnight. Fog should form at least in the valleys late
tonight and could become rather widespread areawide following
rainfall earlier today. A cooler and drier airmass will move into
the area behind the front as the high works east into the area for
Saturday and remain in place through Saturday night.

Less humid weather for Saturday and Saturday night will be most
notable with lows falling below 70 for most areas tonight and
areawide on Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to nudge into the region for the
start of the forecast period. With surface high pressure in place,
temperatures will be back on the rise with highs climbing into the
upper-80s to low-90s for Sunday. Surface high pressure will nudge
off to the east on Monday with enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching shortwave. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to be
warmer as highs are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s, coupled
with warm, moist southwesterly flow, heat indices will be
approaching 100 degrees to over 100 in isolated locations.

Models have come into better agreement with a positively tilted
trough approaching the area. At the surface, a surface low will be
tracking through the Upper Great Lakes. Along and ahead of the
front, increasing showers and thunderstorms are likely. As the low
tracks through the Great Lakes, the front will dive southeast
through the CWA. Forecast soundings, sampled ahead of the front show
a marginally severe atmosphere. Can`t rule out a severe storm or two
but overall, pre-FROPA environment appears to be a poor supportive
environment for severe storms. Models continue to remain in very
good agreement post-frontal Wednesday as deterministic runs keep PoP
chances through the end of the forecast period and even possibly
bring the remnants of Hurricane Beryl to the forecast area for the
end of the forecast period.

Overall, the period will highlighted with periods of showers and
thunderstorms that`ll bring much needed rain to the area. Also,
temperatures will return to more seasonal ranges as daytime highs in
the mid-80s to low-90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper-50s
to upper-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Convection had cleared all but the KSJS vicinity at issuance
time. A lull in activity may occur during the afternoon, but
another round or two of isolated to scattered convection will
remain possible until a cold front crosses the region this evening
into the overnight and a upper disturbance passes. Reductions to
MVFR and IFR if not briefly near airport mins could occur in the
strongest convection. Winds will average 10 KT or less outside of
any convection, from the southwest to west through 06Z and then
becoming west to northwest for the balance of the period behind
the cold front. Fog will also become a concern in the 06Z to 13Z
timeframe when at least IFR and MVFR reductions will be possible.
Some reductions due these levels due to low clouds could occur in
that timeframe as well.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP