Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
243 FXUS62 KKEY 291854 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 254 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Temperatures across the Keys climbed to 90 to 95 degrees this afternoon accompanied by dewpoints in the upper 70s. We issued an early afternoon Heat Advisory for the entire island chain due to observed heat indices up to 112. Skies are sunny and the KBYX radar is echo free near the island chain, although there is a an easterly breeze taking some of the edge off the heat. Shower and thunderstorm activity is relegated to the Straits of Florida and South Florida. .FORECAST... The National Hurricane Center is watching three areas across the basin: a tropical wave near the Yucatan Peninsula, Tropical Storm Beryl around 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and an area of low pressure southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The first two will have indirect impacts on our weather over the next week. For the disturbance near the Yucatan, east to southeast breezes will be enhanced tonight, especially for the western half of our CWA as the system tries to organize over the Bay of Campeche. Breezes will diminish Sunday and Sunday night as the system moves west into Mexico. Meanwhile, an area of unsettled weather currently to the east of Florida will carve to the southwest through South Florida. We highlight 50% rain/thunder chances Sunday through Monday as weak, yet deep, troughiness works its way through South Florida and the Keys. This window of enhanced chances may need to be extended into Monday night as confluent southeasterlies take hold on the back side of the troughiness. In the Tuesday through Friday time frame, the forecast track of Beryl describes a weakening system steadily marching west- northwest through the Caribbean. The mountains of Jamaica and Hispaniola, destructive wind shear at multiple levels, and a broad mean layer ridge centered near the Mississippi River Valley will be significant impediments to the future of Beryl as the system moves into the Western Caribbean. Steering mechanisms as Beryl enters the Western Caribbean are trending towards a stronger ridge to block the northward progress. Nevertheless, the northern periphery of Beryl will scrape through Cuba and the Straits of Florida. Thundery squalls are possible Wednesday night through Thursday night as Beryl makes its closest approach to the Keys. In addition, Small Craft Advisories may be required for a portions of the Florida Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A broad area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche will move westward into Central America tonight and Sunday. Breezes across the Keys will relax somewhat as the system presses west. Breezes will freshen as Beryl, soon to be a hurricane, marches steadily west northwest through the Caribbean Sea Tuesday through Thursday. Please review the Tropical Cyclone Advisories for additional information on the track and future evolution of Beryl. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period for both EYW and MTH terminals. Latest guidance suggests any showers or thunderstorms holding off until around daybreak Sunday morning. Therefore, with continued uncertainty in timing and placement of any activity, we have decided to continue to leave VCSH out of the TAFs for now. Other than that, expect easterly winds to continue with some gusts (~20 kts) through the early evening hours before decreasing overnight. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, a daily record high temperature of 94F was measured in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. $$ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 89 81 89 / 30 50 50 50 Marathon 82 89 81 89 / 30 50 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest