291
FXUS62 KKEY 201900
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Radar has been moderately busy today with showers and
thunderstorms scattered around the CWA although not many are
reaching Special Marine Warning criteria due to the light and
mostly variable winds outside of convection. Later this evening
into tonight dry air, seen on MIMIC Precipitable Water to our
north currently, will make it`s way into our area limiting any
further shower development. Opted to keep 40% PoPs for tonight as
the dry air is slow moving and might not make it until overnight.
PoPs are lowered through this weekend as the dry air sticks around
for a few days.

As for the long term forecast, it is quite uncertain and dependent
on where the high pressure builds in. As a Central American Gyre
is suggested to form it will support cyclogenesis, but the timing
and location is still unclear. Regardless, small craft
advisories may be required as the high pressure will support
increased wind speeds. PoPs will remain near normal through the
forecast package for the time being as things become more clear
with any formation of the tropics.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Keys,
and a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and
Lower Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges,
especially during the hours around high tide.

As a trough slides slowly eastward into the western
North Atlantic this weekend, as a ridge expands its control across
the Southeast United States. Winds will begin to take on a
predominantly light, easterly direction. Confidence in the
extended marine forecast remains quite low and will be highly
dependent on the expected formation of a low pressure system in
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of the ultimate fate of
this low, breezes are expected to freshen by Tuesday, as the low
interacts with high pressure over the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH this afternoon. There
will be slow moving showers and thunderstorms across the broader
area and may periodically directly affect the terminals. As a
result, brief spells of sub VFR conditions will be possible. Surface
winds will be light and variable.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ076.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....11

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