Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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274 FXUS63 KLBF 160518 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms moving out of the panhandle and into the western sandhills this evening and early tonight may produce isolated wind damage. - Active weather pattern continues with daily chances for thunderstorms into the first part of next week. Some storms may produce isolated wind damage, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall, especially up along the Hwy 20 corridor Sunday and Monday. - Very warm conditions persist south of Highway 2 for the next couple of days, but cooler temperatures will slowly push down from the north through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Strong afternoon heating into the lower 90s will increase instability across the panhandle. Isolated showers or storms in the western panhandle will move into the far western Sandhills early this evening. A few storms could produce strong winds gusts. These showers or storms will gradually dissipate as they move east of Highway 61 this evening. A cold front will move into the northwest Sandhills late tonight. Lows will fall to 55 to 60 across the northwest, to 60 to 65 across the south and east. Active weather will return as early as late Sunday afternoon and continue through Sunday night. The cold front will stall out and become stationary by late afternoon, most likely near the I80 corridor. This boundary will need to be monitored very closely, as dewpoints in the mid to upper upper 60s pool near the frontal boundary. Strong instability with SBCAPEs near 3500 J/kg and strong deep later shear near 35 to 45 kts will exist near this warm front. SB CIN may fall to less than 50 J/kg. Any storms would quickly become supercellular should they initiate near the boundary. This could initiate late afternoon across southwest Nebraska. A weak shortwave in southwest flow aloft will lift northeastward. A low confidence, but potentially high impact scenario exists as early as late afternoon into the evening hours, and this will be monitored very closely. A Marginal Risk is forecast for all of western and north central Nebraska,with a Slight Risk near and north of Highway 20. Upscale growth will promote more widespread thunderstorm development overnight north of the surface warm front across north central Nebraska, in the easterly upslope flow regime. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 On Monday, the front will lift north as a warm front into north central Nebraska. A Marginal Risk is forecast across north central into central Nebraska with a Slight Risk into a small portion of north central Nebraska. Strong deep layer shear from 40 to 50 kts and MUCAPEs lowest 1KM from 3500 to 4500 J/kg. Late afternoon through the evening hours will be the period of greatest concern. A cold front is forecast to move through on Tuesday, with a good chance for showers and storms Tuesday night. Much cooler temperatures expected behind the front on Wednesday with highs only in the upper 60s to near 70. Chances or showers and a few thunderstorms with mainly cloudy skies. The southwest flow aloft will persist Thursday, become quasi zonal Friday into Saturday. Daily threats for showers and thunderstorms persisting across western and north central Nebraska. The threat for additional severe weather chances remains uncertain, though at least some threat looks to persist given the background synoptic regime. Highs Monday are likely to contrast from the low 70s far northwest to the to mid and upper 90s southwest. Highs warming to the 80s to near 90 Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail into tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Winds shift northerly through sunrise as a frontal boundary pushes through the area. Winds then gradually shift east then south through this evening, at around 10 to 15kts. Thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon and evening, though confidence remains low in timing and placement of any storms for now. Future TS inclusion may be needed in later issuances. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Brown