Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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947 FXUS63 KLBF 220550 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a risk for severe thunderstorms tonight, generally from Interstate 80 north. - There will be a continued threat for excessive rainfall today and tonight, mainly over portions of north central Nebraska. - Drier conditions are expected this weekend with temperatures approaching the century mark in SW Nebraska Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had high pressure anchored over the central Appalachians. Further west, a trough of low pressure was present from southern Washington state, south into central portions of the California coast. Donwstream of this feature, numerous embedded shortwaves were present from the Four Corners, northeast into the central and northern Rockies. Earlier this evening, a strong shortwave approached the Nebraska Panhandle and is currently lifting into southern South Dakota from Cherry County overnight. This feature, coupled with a stationary front, draped over northern portions of Nebraska, led to strong to severe thunderstorms earlier tonight. Tornadoes, strong straight line winds and heavy rain were reported over north central Nebraska. As of 3 AM CDT, thunderstorms have decreased in areal coverage with light to moderate rainfall occurring over portions of north central Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The before mentioned shortwave, will slowly migrate northeast into southern, then southeastern South Dakota this morning. Precipitation will eventually end this morning across northern Nebraska. In the wake of exiting convection, a frontal boundary, currently draped from far southwestern into portions of south central Nebraska will migrate north. The high res models overnight seem to have the front located correctly while the NAM12 and GFS solns have this feature too far north currently. That being said, believe the front will migrate slightly north today from its current position in line with the HRRR and NAM Nest forecast today. By this afternoon, this feature will be roughly from Ogallala to south of O`Neill. This frontal boundary will combine with a second shortwave, set to push into northeastern Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon, and will be the focal point for thunderstorm development this afternoon. As for the threat for severe storms the greatest threat will be along and north of the frontal position. ATTM this threat is greatest along and north of a line from Ogallala, to North Platte, to Ericson. Decent deep layer shear this afternoon along with surface dew points INVOF the front in the upper 60s will provide ample support for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, however, as was the case earlier today, probably can`t rule out a tornado INVOF the warm frontal boundary. With the frontal boundary forecast to be slightly further south, trended precipitation chances upward for this evening. Thunderstorms this evening will force a cold front south of the area overnight. This will shift the threat for thunderstorms south and east of the forecast area for Saturday. Highs Saturday will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to Today`s forecast highs. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Ridging will build into the western CONUS then central plains Sunday into Monday. The latest guidance is indicating a good potential for readings toping 100 degrees south of I-80 for Monday. Based on forecast H85 temps, this looks plausible. A northern stream disturbance will lead to cooler readings Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will then rebound upward Wednesday and Thursday, as the ridge becomes re-established across the high plains. The latest GFS is indicating decent potential for triple digit heat once again in SW Nebraska for Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue across portions of north central Nebraska tonight before coming to an end by sunrise. Thunderstorms are not expected to impact either terminal at this time. Across northern Nebraska, some light fog will persist into the morning hours due to recent rainfall. Fog should dissipate after sunrise giving way to VFR conditions by the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Based on rain totals of 3-5 inches along the highway 20 corridor from Ainsworth to O`Neil earlier tonight and forecast QPF`s of 1 to 3 inches in these areas today into tonight, will hoist a flood watch from now until 12z Saturday. This watch will include Brown, Rock, Keya Paha, Holt and Boyd counties. Currently, the gauge reading on the Elkhorn River at Atkinson is around 6 FT, which is 1.5 FT below the flood stage of 7.5 FT. Will need to monitor this this morning. If this approaches flood stage, we may need to hoist a flood advisory for the Elkhorn River in Holt county. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ006>010. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Kulik HYDROLOGY...Buttler