390
FXUS63 KLBF 020906
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
406 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Isolated thunderstorm chances today

*Strong to severe scattered thunderstorms possible Wednesday

*Cool 4th of July, with cooler temperatures continuing through
 the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Kept temperatures cooler for highs today in the mid 70s
across much of the forecast area, with the far southern area
reaching the low 80s. For areas north of interstate 80 this is
around 5 to near 10 degrees cooler than normal.

As for precipitation chances today, a weak SW will kick across the
Rockies and move eastward, giving the potential for an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Would expect convection to
develop across the Black Hills and move into the area. The greatest
potential for thunderstorms to move into the area, will generally be
across northern Nebraska, along and west of HWY 83. There will be
decent shear and dewpoints in the low 50s for the environment,
however CAPE is marginal at best. Should a storm move into the
northern Sandhills, confidence is low in any robust storm sustaining
itself, however a briefly strong to severe thunderstorm can`t be
completely be ruled out.

Focus then turns to Wednesday where more scattered storm development
is expected as an advancing trof moves into the area and provide the
focus for thunderstorm development. CAPE values will be around 1000
to 2000 J/kg, with the highest CAPE values generally along and west
of HWY 83. 0-3 helicity in correlation with the sig tor
parameter do highlight western Nebraska, generally along and
west of HWY 83 where the environment is most favorable for
tornadic development, along the sfc trof. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the afternoon and evening and lingering
through the overnight hours, but would expect the greatest
potential for strong to severe storms in the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A cold front moves through the area Thursday keeping temperatures
quite cool for the 4th of July. Highs will only be in the low
70s north of Interstate 80 and in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees south of Interstate 80. This ranges from around 5 to
near 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Models
continue to hint to at least at chance of some showers and
thunderstorms possible in the afternoon across northern
Nebraska, generally north of HWY 2, but expect any precipitation
to be out of the area by the evening hours. Cooler temperatures
remain on Friday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with
drier conditions. The trend for cooler temperatures continues in
to the weekend with the northern portions of the forecast area
continuing to remain below normal through Sunday, with near
normal temperatures across the southern forecast area. The
weekend at this time looks to remain mostly dry.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

MVFR ceilings exist across portions of the Sandhills into
southwest Nebraska. At KLBF, MVFR ceilings near OVC014 with 6SM
BR until 11Z. After 11Z, widely scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms will extend across portions of southwest Nebraska.
Included VCTS at KLBF 11Z-17Z and 21Z until 00Z/3rd. At KVTN,
VCSH 17Z-21Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Roberg