742
FXUS63 KLBF 291803
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
103 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Cooler temperatures this weekend

*Isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening and overnight

*Triple digits possible across SW Nebraska Monday

*More widespread thunderstorm chances Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today`s highs will be cooler with behind the cold front
passage. High temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s across much of western
and north central Nebraska. Isolated thunderstorms may continue in
the morning hours, but then expect the rest of the day to remain
dry. Temperatures will remain cool on Sunday across the Sandhills,
north central and southwest Nebraska with temperatures in the
mid 70s. Far western Nebraska will be slightly warmer as a warm
front advances from the west, temperatures will reach the low
80s. As the warm front pushes east Sunday it will become the
focus for some isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening into the
overnight. Did lower PoPs from inherited forecast, CAPE is
marginal, and shear is limited so there is some uncertainty on
coverage of thunderstorm activity, think the better environment
is going to be west in the Nebraska Panhandle. &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

On Monday, Warm front will lift into central Nebraska with WAA
behind the front warming temperatures into the 90s, east of the
front, across north central Nebraska, cooler temperatures will
remain with highs in the 80s. Triple digits will be possible
across far southwest/southern Nebraska. A SW trof moves in from
the west later in the day and could see the potential for
scattered to widespread thunderstorm development Monday
afternoon and evening. CAPE values will be around 1000 to 2000
J/kg Monday afternoon, increasing in the evening to 3500 J/kg or
more in some locations. There will be decent deep layer shear
and marginal lapse rates through the afternoon and evening
hours, 2/3s of the eastern portion of the CWA is highlighted in
a slight risk for Monday afternoon/evening. Storm mode is
expected to be super cellular. After Monday, temperatures will
become more seasonable with highs mostly in the upper 70s to
80s. The pattern still continues to be active with several
disturbances moving through the week, leading to at least a
slight chance for isolated thunderstorms daily through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all of western and
north central Nebraska through tonight. North winds will
diminish this afternoon and gradually switch around to the
southeast tonight. No thunderstorm activity is expected through
tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Taylor