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FXUS63 KLBF 211137
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a risk for severe thunderstorms tonight, generally from
Interstate 80 north.

- There will be a continued threat for excessive rainfall today and
tonight, mainly over portions of north central Nebraska.

- Drier conditions are expected this weekend with temperatures
  approaching the century mark in SW Nebraska Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had high pressure anchored
over the central Appalachians. Further west, a trough of low
pressure was present from southern Washington state, south into
central portions of the California coast. Donwstream of this
feature, numerous embedded shortwaves were present from the Four
Corners, northeast into the central and northern Rockies.
Earlier this evening, a strong shortwave approached the Nebraska
Panhandle and is currently lifting into southern South Dakota
from Cherry County overnight. This feature, coupled with a
stationary front, draped over northern portions of Nebraska, led
to strong to severe thunderstorms earlier tonight. Tornadoes,
strong straight line winds and heavy rain were reported over
north central Nebraska. As of 3 AM CDT, thunderstorms have
decreased in areal coverage with light to moderate rainfall
occurring over portions of north central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The before mentioned shortwave, will slowly migrate northeast
into southern, then southeastern South Dakota this morning.
Precipitation will eventually end this morning across northern
Nebraska. In the wake of exiting convection, a frontal boundary,
currently draped from far southwestern into portions of south
central Nebraska will migrate north. The high res models
overnight seem to have the front located correctly while the
NAM12 and GFS solns have this feature too far north currently.
That being said, believe the front will migrate slightly north
today from its current position in line with the HRRR and NAM
Nest forecast today. By this afternoon, this feature will be
roughly from Ogallala to south of O`Neill. This frontal boundary
will combine with a second shortwave, set to push into
northeastern Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon,
and will be the focal point for thunderstorm development this
afternoon. As for the threat for severe storms the greatest
threat will be along and north of the frontal position. ATTM
this threat is greatest along and north of a line from Ogallala,
to North Platte, to Ericson. Decent deep layer shear this
afternoon along with surface dew points INVOF the front in the
upper 60s will provide ample support for severe storms this
afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threats, however, as was the case earlier today, probably
can`t rule out a tornado INVOF the warm frontal boundary. With
the frontal boundary forecast to be slightly further south,
trended precipitation chances upward for this evening.
Thunderstorms this evening will force a cold front south of the
area overnight. This will shift the threat for thunderstorms
south and east of the forecast area for Saturday. Highs Saturday
will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to Today`s forecast
highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Ridging will build into the western CONUS then central plains
Sunday into Monday. The latest guidance is indicating a good
potential for readings toping 100 degrees south of I-80 for
Monday. Based on forecast H85 temps, this looks plausible. A
northern stream disturbance will lead to cooler readings Tuesday
and Wednesday. Temps will then rebound upward Wednesday and
Thursday, as the ridge becomes re-established across the high
plains. The latest GFS is indicating decent potential for triple
digit heat once again in SW Nebraska for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A brief lull in the active weather will return for much of today
before thunderstorm development occurs again by the afternoon
and into the evening. Majority of the storms will be across
northern Nebraska, however, an isolated storm or two may be
possible as far south as the I-80 corridor. Strong and erratic
winds along with large hail will be the primary hazards with any
of these thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will begin to diminish by
06Z to 08Z however ceilings will remain at 1000 feet across
northern Nebraska.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Based on rain totals of 3-5 inches along the highway 20
corridor from Ainsworth to O`Neil earlier tonight and forecast QPF`s
of 1 to 3 inches in these areas today into tonight, will hoist a
flood watch from now until 12z Saturday. This watch will include
Brown, Rock, Keya Paha, Holt and Boyd counties. Currently, the gauge
reading on the Elkhorn River at Atkinson is around 6 FT, which is
1.5 FT below the flood stage of 7.5 FT. Will need to monitor this
this morning. If this approaches flood stage, we may need to hoist a
flood advisory for the Elkhorn River in Holt county.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NEZ006>010.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik
HYDROLOGY...Buttler