Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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458 FXUS63 KLBF 210615 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 115 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances, and the potential for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain, will be the focus both today and Friday. - Rain chances diminish this weekend with a return to warmer temperatures. - Above normal temperatures really take hold by Monday when far southwest Nebraska could approach 100F. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A warm front is lifting northward across western and north central Nebraska this morning. By late this afternoon, it will extend eastward along the NE/SD border from a deepening area of low pressure across the Nebraska Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop mid-afternoon across eastern WY within a moist up-slope environment. Initially, supercells will likely be the mode, but storms should quickly organize into a line segment as it tracks across the Panhandle into northwest Nebraska early this evening. Strong winds appears to be the main threat though some hail could accompany the stronger updrafts. Storms intensity should diminish by late evening as they progress across north central Nebraska into less favorable instability. Still, heavy rainfall may occur in this area, as PWATS climb and exceed the 90th %tile as Gulf moisture surges northward and the southerly LLJ increases. The better focus may end up being north of the border in SD however, near the nose of the LLJ. Surface low pressure will develop southward into northeast CO during the day Friday. A warm front will extend northeastward from the low across southwest into north central Nebraska. This front will become the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. The overall shear profiles will be a little less than today, but still favorable for storm organization. This will be especially true across portions of far north central Nebraska where surface winds will be locally backed. A few supercells will be possible early on, especially near and just north of the warm front. Other higher based more multicell type develop may occur across the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska. The focus then becomes the potential for heavy rainfall Friday night as the southerly LLJ once again increases. Focus may again be more north in SD but will need to be monitored. Cold front then crosses the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. This will shift precipitation chances east of the area Saturday into Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Ridging aloft takes hold across the southern plains into the desert southwest from Sunday into most of next week. This puts our area beneath west or northwest flow aloft. This is a warm and drier pattern. In fact a very warm day is expected Monday when portions of southwest Nebraska could see highs topping out in the lower 100s. A weak cold front then settles south through the area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing temperatures back to near average. Regarding precipitation chances, as mentioned this looks to be a drier pattern, but still may see some isolated thunderstorm develoment which is common in a west-northwest flow aloft pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue across portions of north central Nebraska tonight before coming to an end by sunrise. A brief lull in the active weather will return for Friday before thunderstorm development occurs again by the afternoon and into the evening. Majority of the storms will be across northern Nebraska, however, an isolated storm or two may be possible as far south as the I-80 corridor. Confidence remains too low to put thunderstorms into the prevailing forecast at KLBF at this time. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Kulik