629
FXUS64 KLCH 200456
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1156 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The latest guidance for TS Alberto now has the outer edge of TS
force winds to the southwest of our coastal waters, and winds
should gradually taper off through Friday, especially once the
system begins to deteriorate after landfall. Aloft, ridging
centered over the mid-Atlantic will build southwest across the
area the next couple of days.

Regarding the risk for coastal flooding, the Coastal Flood
Warning has been extended inland to include areas around Sabine
and Calcasieu Lakes in southern Orange County and Calcasieu
Parish. While water levels will fall some tonight during low tide,
P-ETSS guidance indicates tide levels climbing back to between 2
to 2.5 FT MHHW at Texas Point and Calcasieu Pass and between 1.5
and 2.0 FT MHHW further inland around Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes
at times of high tide late tonight into Thursday morning.
Similarly for points further east, water levels will again pose
the potential for minor coastal flooding across portions of lower
Saint Mary and Iberia Parishes around time of high tide early
Thursday so the Advisory will also remain in effect.

As the high aloft builds over the region, deep flow over the
region will become more easterly, with moisture, while abundant,
not nearly as prolific as it has been. PWATs will trend below the
90th percentile and probably closer to the climo mean. This will
result in a transition toward a more seasonal pattern the next
couple of days, with more scattered and diurnally-forced
convection forming along the seabreeze and other mesoscale
boundaries. Saturday appears to be the driest of the days in the
short term as weak capping develops aloft, which should help limit
shower coverage.

With decreasing cloud cover and more scattered showers each
afternoon, daytime temperatures are expected to warm back to near
seasonal levels, in the lower 90s. With strengthening high
pressure aloft and reduced convection on Saturday, high
temperatures are expected to climb back into the middle 90s across
the northern half of the area with lower 90s for the southern
areas.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

At the beginning of the long term, we will have a broad upper level
ridge extending across the Gulf Coast / Southeast States. This will
be shunted off to the Desert Southwest over the weekend, where it
will stay for most of the next work week, however some of its
influence will be felt over interior SETX and CenLA.

Another broad area of low pressure has a 30% chance of development
in the Bay of Campeche this weekend. It is expected to move WNW to
NW over the period. Thanks to the ridge, this system and its
associated tropical moisture is expected to stay well offshore.
Therefore no direct impacts are likely. Nevertheless, near daily
isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected over the
CWA. With most of the activity being diurnally driven, we can expect
our normal summer pattern with showers and storms starting in the
afternoon then beginning to taper in the evening hours each day.

Temperatures will be (and feel) summerlike. MaxTs will be in the mid
to upper 90s with MinTs in the 70s. Dewpoints will be in the 70s as
well, making it plenty humid.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

E`ly flow will remain enhanced aloft with some gusts mixing down
toward the surface. Mainly VFR ceilings and VIS expected through
mid morning with slight increase in diurnal winds after daybreak.
VFR and breezy E`ly conditions will continue through the
afternoon. Warm, moist atmosphere may initiate isolated TSRA in
mid afternoon hours near coastal sites along or south of I-10.
Otherwise VFR conditions to continue into the overnight hours with
E`ly winds gaining little more S`ly components and decreasing.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  92  70  93 /  30  10   0  10
LCH  76  90  73  91 /  20  50  20  50
LFT  77  91  75  93 /  20  50  10  50
BPT  78  92  75  92 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ073-074-241.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...30