Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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006 FXUS64 KLCH 101140 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 640 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Early morning sfc analysis shows a cool front located roughly along the I-20 corridor from nern TX to cntl MS at this time while high pressure lingers over the nrn Gulf. Water vapor imagery shows troffing in place over the ern 1/2 of the country, emanating from a cutoff low over nrn ME...an initial shortwave is noted dropping through the Ozarks this morning while another is noted further upstream in the Plains. mid/upper-level ridging centered roughly overhead at the moment. Satellite imagery shows patchy thick cirrus from convection near the front beginning to impact the area, while sfc obs don`t show a lot of lower cloud cover around the area. Local 88Ds show just scattered nocturnal showers over the coastal waters, although coverage is slowly increasing. After a few days of drying out, rain chances return to the area today as the Ozarks disturbance continues swd, taking the sfc front with it into the forecast area. With forecast soundings still indicating improving moisture (mean RH values to 70 percent and PWAT values to 1.9 inches which is roughly the 90th percentile per SPC climo), expect scattered showers/storms to gradually develop across the area, initially near the coast (nocturnal activity moving inland) and across the nrn extremes (combo of disturbance and frontal influences) before filling in the middle. This activity will linger past sunset before dissipating with loss of heating. Tuesday appears to be a day with more of a widely scattered convection potential across the area as the front stalls over the coastal waters and potentially begins to lift back nwd towards the coast. Meanwhile, another disturbance aloft sweeps into the region. Wednesday`s looking like more of the same, although the next shortwave in the series appears to keep most of its better lift out west of the forecast area...thus just slim POPs are in the forecast for the end of the short term. Temperatures are progged to be rather seasonal throughout the short term period. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Forecast guidance continues to trend drier Thursday and Friday as there is better agreement on drier air advecting into the region around the eastern periphery of a strong ridge over the southwestern U.S. This should keep convection at bay along whatever is left of the quasistationary frontal boundary just off the coast. This drier air aloft will likely mix down to the surface both Thursday and Friday afternoons bringing dewpoints down into the low to mid 60s. This will certainly be beneficial from an apparent temperature standpoint, but with RH values falling into the 30s, a low end risk for grass/marsh fires could develop. The area has been wet enough recently that there shouldn`t be any significant fire risk from other fuels. The lower dewpoints and mostly clear skies should allow low temps to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday morning Surface winds will turn back out of the south late Saturday afternoon in advance of a closely watched tropical disturbance moving across the central Gulf of Mexico. Latest guidance depicts this disturbance tracking further West into the northwestern or northern gulf and trended PoPs upward Sunday to account for this, but there has been a lot of windshield wipering (back and forth) amongst guidance in recent days so forecast confidence Sunday is lower than normal. In the interest of rumor suppression, it continues to be worth mentioning that there has been no consistent guidance indicating tropical cyclone development at this time. That said, the wave will have the potential to become a flash flood threat across parts of the gulf coast by next weekend. Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Main issue today appears to be convective development in/around the terminals as the area gets combo`d by an approaching mid-level disturbance and associated weak sfc front as well as daytime heating. Already seeing a few showers/possible storm over the coastal zones from maritime nocturnal activity...not expecting these to be an issue for any of the terminals at this time. Best chance for precip at the TAF sites appears to be this afternoon and PROB30s are being carried to account. Convection should die off with sunset. Will let later issuances better refine tonight`s fog threat. 25 && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Not seeing any headlines on the CWF anywhere during the forecast period as regardless of direction, flow remains rather light. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 89 66 89 66 / 30 20 10 0 LCH 91 72 91 70 / 40 30 30 10 LFT 92 73 92 71 / 40 30 30 10 BPT 92 73 93 72 / 40 30 30 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...25