749
FXUS64 KLCH 040216
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
916 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A lone thunderstorm remains over the lower Atchafalaya Basin.
However, this activity is expected to diminish shortly with the
overnight being rather quiet. With light winds, and just high
level cloudiness, some patchy ground fog may form over locations
that received decent rainfall today.

The upper air sounding from KLCH still shows a very moist
environment in place with PWAT over 2.2 inches. Therefore, some
nocturnal shower activity will be possible over the northern Gulf
overnight. With 85H-70H mean winds from the south, some of this
shower activity will make it onshore toward sunrise.

More scattered storms possible during the Independence Holiday
mainly from late morning to early evening, but likely dissipating
before the main firework shows. Away from the convection, it will
be hot and humid.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure ridging into the
area from the east, while aloft broad ridging extends from west
TX to the Carolinas. Ridging aloft has resulted in warm and humid
conditions across the region once again today however, it has not
been enough to tamper convection. Area radar shows scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly across the I-10 corridor, with a
few showers further inland. Convection has been ongoing since
early this morning, fueled by a mesoscale boundary along the
northern Gulf Coast, while this afternoon convection is largely
driven by daytime heating. Temperature wise, those areas that have
seen rain over the last hour or so are largely in the mid to
upper 80s, while elsewhere temps are in the low to mid 90s at this
time. As we head into tonight, convection will begin to taper off
by about 00-02Z, with warm and muggy conditions again expected
overnight.

Tomorrow into Friday ridging aloft will begin to gradually break
down and shift east, with a general weakness developing aloft. For
the 4th of July holiday, a similar pattern to today is expected,
with isolated convection near the coast through the early part of
the day spreading inland and becoming more scattered in nature
through the afternoon hours. Away from convection, another warm
and humid day is on tap with highs again expected to top out in
the low to mid 90s. The combination of heat and humidity has
prompted another Heat Advisory to be issued for tomorrow for
interior SE TX, central LA, and lower Acadiana. For Friday, a
similar pattern continues however, rainfall and cloud cover look
like they may be a bit more widespread in nature, especially
through peak heating hours. Therefore, temps may again warm into
the low to mid 90s however, heat indices look like they will be
held in check (below advisory criteria) for now.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

By the start of the long term period early Saturday, tropical
cyclone Beryl is expected to be moving NW across the Bay of
Campeche. The official track from NHC continues to indicate a
northwesterly path toward NE Mexico or S TX sometime late Sunday or
early Monday, and this remains roughly near the mean consensus of
model guidance. At this point, any impacts to the local area based
on this track would be confined to elevated winds/seas over the
coastal zones and minor coastal flooding. However, there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty in how the forecast track after it moves
off the western Yucatan coast and this will be monitored over the
coming days.

In the meantime, the ridge that has been over the region will
continue to weaken and shift east off the SE coast by this weekend,
with the weakness aloft to prevail for the next several days. The
passage of shortwaves within a Midwestern trough will help to
bring a weak front toward the area by Saturday, with the boundary
becoming stalled over the region. The combination of the low level
focus provided by the boundary, limited capping and copious
moisture (with PWATs around or above 2 inches) will support
development of scattered to numerous showers and storms on a daily
basis through the period. The good news is that the increase in
cloud cover and showers will keep daytime high temps mainly in the
lower 90s (or possibly lower depending on how widespread showers
become). The only exceptions could be Sunday and Monday when
slightly less shower coverage could help temps warm back into the
middle 90s across portions of central and south central LA.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A few left over showers may occur near a terminal until sunset or
04/02z. Then mainly stable conditions with VFR. With light winds
and just high level clouds, any terminals that received rain will
have the potential for ground fog with a brief period of MVFR
conditions, with KLCH having the best potential for that to occur.

More high moisture to combine with daytime heating to allow for a
chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms by late morning into
the afternoon and will have VCTS at terminals to account for this.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure aloft will begin to weaken overhead tomorrow and
Friday, allowing for the return of normal diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms. Coverage looks to again be fairly scattered
tomorrow, but may become more widespread over the weekend as
ridging overhead fully breaks down.

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will
prevail through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas
will begin to increase late Saturday into Sunday as a pressure
gradient begins to tighten over the coastal region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  95  76  96 /  20  40  10  50
LCH  79  91  79  93 /  10  60   0  50
LFT  79  94  78  95 /  10  70  10  60
BPT  79  94  78  96 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>029-033-
     044-045-055-152>154-252-253.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-259-
     260.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07