Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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964 FXUS64 KLCH 201650 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1150 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Only minor changes to the hourly PoP grids for today, while T/Td/Wind grids were updated to reflect morning obs. KLCH radar currently pretty quiet with the exception of a few small showers over the coastal waters. The airmass overhead is much drier than yesterday morning, with PWATs down to just under 1.5 inches per 12z KLCH sounding. Even so, with daytime heating, this should be sufficient to produce some scattered showers or a few storms during the afternoon, with modest low level forcing. Even though TC Alberto has moved inland over Mexico, the pressure gradient remains tight enough to produce strong easterly flow over the coastal waters and this will maintain coastal flood risk through the afternoon. It appears that the risk for flooding will return again with the Friday morning high tide cycle, so anticipate an extension of the Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories this afternoon although some minor adjustments will be possible. Despite adjustments to hourly grids today, current text products remain in good shape so no updates will be sent. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Wx map shows Tropical Storm Alberto in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and expected to make landfall on the Mexican coast this morning. While the circulation has contracted enough to drop the tropical storm warnings for the U.S. locations, still elevated winds across the Northern Gulf of Mexico will continue this morning due to the tight pressure gradient continuing between Alberto and the large surface high across the East Coast. With this continued large eastward fetch across the Northern Gulf of Mexico, tides will remain high this morning and afternoon. A Coastal Flood Warning continues through 4 PM for Cameron Parish and Lower Jefferson County for water levels between 2.0 and 2.5 feet MHHW, and Southern Calcasieu Parish & Southern Orange County for water levels between 1.5 and 2.0 feet MHHW. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues through 4 PM for Lower Vermilion, Lower Iberia, and Lower St. Mary parishes for water levels 1.5 and 2.0 feet MHHW. Otherwise, radar shows only intermittent showers across the coastal waters this morning. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon aided by lingering moisture and afternoon heating. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s expected. The showers expected to diminish by sunset, with lows Friday morning mainly in the lower 70s. For Friday and Saturday, the large mid to upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the Gulf states. Lingering moisture across the Gulf expected to keep scattered shower and thunderstorms along and south of I-10, with isolated further north, for Friday afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 90s. For Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms diminish further as the ridge strengthens, with highs in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10, lower to mid 90s elsewhere. Maximum heat index values expected in the 100-105 range. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Broad upper ridging extending from southern California to the eastern Gulf will dominate the synoptic pattern through the beginning of the long term period. This will result in mostly sunny skies and above average temps from the end of the weekend into the early work week. Although ridging will be overhead, we will likely still see isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection each afternoon during peak heating hours, with better rain chances (~40%) expected across Acadiana where the influence of the ridge will be weaker. Elsewhere, 20-30 POPs are on tap both Sun and Mon afternoon. Temperature wise, highs will top out in the mid to upper 90s each day, while lows will fall into he mid to upper 70s. Moving into Tuesday and beyond the upper ridge begins to retreat westward with the forecast area becoming situated on its far eastern edge by late Wednesday. This will open the door for higher rain chances areawide each afternoon, with NBM painting a gradual increase in POPs each day through this period. Still, most of this convection should be diurnally driven in nature and will come to an end with sunset each day. Better rain chances will have the added benefit of bringing afternoon highs down a bit through the mid week, with highs in the low to mid 90s expected, while overnight lows continue to fall into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, we will need to keep an eye on the tropics as we head into the long range, as NHC has outlined an area of interest over the Bay of Campeche in the 7 Day Outlook with a 50% chance of development. Fortunately, the upper ridge overhead looks like it`ll keep whatever becomes of this system well to our south (similarly to Alberto) however, we could see some elevated moisture making its way north to the Gulf Coast states at some point which would likely be the extent of any impacts. 17 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 MVFR cigs are currently noted at the southern TAF locations as the daytime CU field continues to develop. Cigs have been more persistent at LCH/BPT than at the Acadiana terminals. Anticipate a trend toward more SCT VFR conditions during the afternoon, with bases rising to between 3000 and 6000 FT. Gusty easterly winds to persist at the southern airports this afternoon, along with the possibility of scattered SHRA/TSRA so carried VC mention at these sites. Further north at AEX, winds should be a little lighter with any showers expected to be more isolated. VFR conditions expected to prevail after sunset with winds diminishing. 24 && .MARINE... Tropical Storm Alberto in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico will continue to move westward toward the Mexican coast this morning. Strong easterly winds will persist this morning, diminishing by this evening through the overnight hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms could bring wind gusts to near 34 knots across the outer coastal waters this morning. Winds will gradually become more southeast to south by late in the weekend into early next week. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 92 70 93 71 / 10 0 10 0 LCH 91 73 91 74 / 50 20 40 10 LFT 91 74 93 73 / 50 10 40 10 BPT 91 75 92 75 / 40 30 30 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ073- 074-241. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ615- 616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452- 455. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...24