Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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330 FXUS64 KLCH 291111 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 611 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 An upper level ridge has built across most of the south this morning while the subtropical ridge is stretched from the Atlantic and across the gulf coast. Hot and humid conditions will result from this set up. Isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon convection along the sea breeze may occur by mid day and gradually move inland. The sea breeze is anticipated to hold temps down just enough in coastal areas to keep apparent temps slightly below heat adv criteria, but values may still hit 105-107. Farther inland the delayed start to convection, or the lack in general, may allow apparent temps to range from 106 to 112 this afternoon. A repeat performance is expected Sunday. Monday a weak cold front is expected to drift into the region. While no real cooling is anticipated, additional convection may occur. This may hold temperatures down enough in the afternoon to provide a slim amount of heat relief. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Little change of thinking for the longterm forecast period. Still expecting upper level high pressure dome to be located overtop the region with surface ridge situated to the north and east of TX/LA for at least Tuesday thru late Wednesday. This off-step of high pressure ridges should allow for seabreeze showers and thunderstorms to develop and 40 to 60 % PoPs for these days is reasonable. Latest round of the NMB came in with 60 to 80% PoPs on these days but brought those values down to aforementioned values considering there is SOME staunching of convection from ridge aloft. A series of shortwaves moving across the northern US will wear down the ridge aloft starting Thursday. Attendant surface low will also shunt southward the surface high causing it to move towards Louisiana proper. This should act to somewhat lessen daytime rain chances Thursday (4th of July) and Friday. Those with outdoor plans for the Holiday should monitor forecast updates in the coming days. Latest run of guidance for the period did come in a degree or two higher, likely due to some dry air advecting in aloft with the upper ridge. Forecast highs are running in the mid to upper 90s for areas north of I-10, with coastal areas hovering in the low to mid 90s. Humidity should also remain elevated for much of next week; combined with these above average high temperatures, expect cautionary Heat Statements to be in effect for at least some portions of the area. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated, however brief periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning as the CU field develops and again this afternoon with widely scattered showers and storms. Winds will be light and south to southwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for mainly light onshore flow to go along with mainly low seas. Through the next several days, scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 75 97 76 / 30 20 30 20 LCH 92 78 94 78 / 30 10 30 10 LFT 94 79 96 79 / 50 10 40 20 BPT 94 78 96 78 / 30 10 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...05