454
FXUS64 KLIX 300941
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
441 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tueday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

At 08z temps mainly ranged from the upper 70s to lower 80s while
there were still isolated spots in the mid 80s. given dewpoints
are right about the same spot there will likely be very minimal
cooling the rest of the morning. This will once again set the
stage for a rather oppressive and possibly dangerous day across
some locations with respect to the heat.

Over the next 3 days the main forecast concern will be the heat. The
ridge continues to slowly build in over the next few days while LL
temps rise. Today a 598/599 dm ridge will be centered over and just
to the west of the Red River Valley but the ridge axis will stretch
to the ESE just north of the FL panhandle. This should provide quite
a bit of subsidence to suppress convection for most of the day. H5
temps of around -4C will also not help convective development much.
However, PWs with the 00z sndg last night were just under 2.3" and
these are expected to rise through the day possibly topping out
around 2.5". With this much moisture it will be very hard to remain
rain free even with the ridge building in and those warm mid lvl
temps. That said there is still high pressure dominating the LL and
with very weak winds and even winds at h925 and h85 today veer
around to the northwest and north the likelihood of convection
firing off early due to seabreeze and lake breeze interaction is
extremely low. Much like yesterday any convection we see will
probably hold off til deep into the afternoon hours or even the
early evening hours.

With convection expected to develop rather late today this doesn`t
bode well for keeping the afternoon highs at bay. H925 temps of 26
possibly 27C easily suggest highs in the mid 90s with a few upper
90s likely and given what everyone was able to attain yesterday most
sites should have little problem reaching that or possibly getting a
degree warmer today. Not explicitly forecasting any locations to
touch the century mark this afternoon but it would not be out of the
realm of possibility. With temps of this magnitude combining with the
extremely humid tropical airmass in place it seems all but certain
that most locations will see extreme heat indices. The Excessive
Heat Warning was already in place and saw no reason to change that.
The one possibility was expanding it in area to include the FL
parishes but held off for now. Heat index readings today should
range from 106 to 114 with a few sites likely getting abv that.

If you thought yesterday was rough and today looks rougher from a
heat standpoint, it may not have anything on Monday and Tuesday`s.
The ridge will continue to build across the southern Plains and
Lower MS Valley with the ridge axis extending north into Canada west
of the Great Lakes and the ridge will also extend east across most
of the southeastern CONUS. This will continue to keep the very warm
mid lvl temps in place along with strong subsidence from the ridge.
There is one feature though that could make things worse for a large
chunk of the area and as weird as this may sound, it is a backdoor
cold front. First one would think "cold front, well that should
help" not likely for multiple reasons. First it looks like it will
be a dry front from the most part thanks to the stout ridge but it
will not be moving fast and the drier air that one would also hope
for on the backside will still be well back to the north over north
MS Monday afternoon. This will also bring northerly winds across the
region. This would provide some slight downsloping influence and
could lead to some locations, especially coastal MS, torching out.
If not to bring on more bad news LL temps continue to trickle up
with h925 temps possibly topping out around 28/29C and that should
firmly get most of the area into the upper half of the 90s with a
few 100s looking quite possible if not expected. Excessive heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories have already been issued but some of
those areas in the advisory probably will need to be upgraded to a
warning. Convection is the main factor that could be a thorn in the
side of the forecast but that is not looking that great at the
moment. Heat index values could be dangerous possibly in the upper
110s. If you are outside for any reason work or pleasure please
remember to take numerous breaks in shaded areas, hydrate hydrate
hydrate, weak light colored loose fitting clothing, check on your
family, friends, neighbors, and coworkers, and hydrate (yes we said
that but it bares repeating)

Tuesday the ridge builds even more over the area and could be
centered over the Lower MS Valley by now. LL temps continue to look
very with h925 still around 28/29 possibly even 30C. The drier air
that was moving south through MS behind our backdoor front will be
slowing down drastically and may only just get into southwest MS
before the rich Gulf air quickly surges back in. Like a broken
record the one thing that could help would be convection and it
doesn`t really look to be that favorable however, there may be a
weak disturbance trying to ride around the ridge and as the ridge
east just north of us we could see some influence from whatever is
left of that disturbance as it moves to the west across the n
northern GOM. Overall what makes Monday dangerous will be about the
same on Tuesday so take all necessary precautions again. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Things that doen`t seem to get much better as we move
on through the week with the 4th of July looking to be a rather hot
and oppressive day. The ridge is expected to slowly continue to work
to the east dominating the region which should hinder storm
potential but maybe just maybe the ridge would be just far enough
north allow some easterly flow and and maybe an impulse or two to
help with rain chances each day. That said highs still looks like
they will be in the mid 90s most days with isolated lower and upper
90s across the region. Moisture will not go anywhere so look for
some heat headlines through the week. One thing to remember with
respect to heat, it is an accumulating impact. With each passing day
if you do not find a way to cool off for more than just a few hours
it will be easier and easier to become a heat casualty.

Last thing to mention, Beryl. Beryl became a hurricane yesterday and
has continue to strengthen through the night. The forecast continues
a WNW motion through the Caribbean approaching the Yucatan by
Thursday night/Friday morning. After that models show some spread
but the majority bring Beryl into the Bay of Campeche/southwestern
Gulf. With the pattern that is expected over our area and the ridge
likely holding on into the weekend over the southeastern CONUS and
northeastern Gulf Beryl should continue to track to the WNW with
maybe a slight NW jog. At this time it would not appear to be a
major concern for our area however things can change so continue to
stay weather aware and watch for the latest updates on Hurricane
Beryl. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

All of the convection across the area has dissipated shortly after
sunset. VFR conditions will prevail tonight and into tomorrow.
Similar to yesterday, convection is expected to initiate around
18-19z tomorrow when the convective temperature is reached.
Pinpointing where this will occur is a challenge, thus only VCTS
was mentioned. Expect that activity to continue until the sun goes
down around 02-04z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Coastal areas remain quite benign and even convection has been
diffculy to get going across the waters. Typicall storms would
begin to develop around 8/9z and none have so far. Unless
convection develops the coniditons will remain very quite for the
next few days. Light winds and low seas across all of the waters
will continue and winds over the tidal lakes, sounds, and near
the coast will be dictated by diurnal flucuatiuons. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  75  95  73 /  50  30  40  10
BTR  98  79 100  78 /  40  30  60  10
ASD  96  78  96  78 /  50  30  50  10
MSY  95  81  95  81 /  40  40  70  10
GPT  95  77  95  78 /  60  40  50  10
PQL  97  76  98  77 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ034-035-046>048-056>060-064-065-076>090.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034-
     035-046>048-056>060-064-065-076>090.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ036-037-039-066>071.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ066>070.

GM...None.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ068-083>088.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068-
     083>088.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ069>071-077.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB