383
FXUS64 KLIX 160447
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1147 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Earlier convection has dissipated, and little, if any,
precipitation is expected for the remainder of the night. Still
cannot entirely rule out fog overnight, and will need to monitor
for development. Forecast update has been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A broad upper level low pressure system that has dominated the
Southeastern CONUS for the past few days will continue to bring a
risk of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area through
Tuesday evening. This increased convective activity will be
driven by a combination of near average PWATS around 1.75 inches,
upper level forcing, and diurnal instability as SBCAPE peaks
between 1000 and 1500 J/KG each afternoon. Convective activity
will tend to peak in the afternoon hours and wane in the overnight
hours each day. There will also be a gradient to the POP values as
the deeper moisture and strongest forcing will be located across
the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area including
southern Mississippi and the Northshore both Monday and Tuesday.
This area will see POP peak between 40 and 60 percent tomorrow and
30 to 40 percent on Tuesday. Temperature spread between the 25th
and 75th percentiles in the NBM is small, so have stuck with NBM
deterministic output for both highs and lows in the short term
period. This keeps temperatures near average both Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

By Wednesday, the upper level low is expected to pull well east of
the region, and a strong upper level ridge with increasing deep
layer subsidence and drier air will build over the forecast area.
The end result will be an extended period of limited cloud
development, lower humidity, no rain chances, and near to slightly
warmer than average high temperatures from Wednesday through
Saturday. Overnight lows will easily cool into the upper 60s and
lower 70s due to the dry airmass in place. Once again, there is
not a large degree of spread in the model solutions, so the
temperature forecast follows the NBM deterministic output closely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Terminals currently VFR. Main concern in the short term will be
the potential for low clouds and/or fog around sunrise. MVFR to
IFR conditions possible, especially at KHUM and KMCB with a small
threat of briefly LIFR. We are seeing some lowered visibilities
at several non-forecast points already (KPQL and KGAO), so
amendments may be necessary later. Cloud bases that develop around
sunrise should lift to near FL030 by late morning. Scattered
convection is possible at all terminals on Monday, primarily
during the afternoon hours. IFR visibilities would be the primary
direct impact for terminals, if it occurs, but instantaneous areal
coverage will probably only be around 30 percent. Most or all
convection should dissipate near 00z Tuesday, with VFR conditions
during the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Very weak gradient flow over the coastal waters will remain in
place through the end of the week, and this will keep winds below
10 knots and seas below 2 feet. These benign conditions will
occasionally be interrupted by scattered convective activity
producing locally gusty winds and waterspouts, but overall no
significant impacts to maritime activities are forecast through
the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  84  68  83 /  10  70  30  30
BTR  71  87  71  86 /   0  40  20  30
ASD  70  86  70  84 /  10  40  30  40
MSY  72  85  74  84 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  71  83  71  83 /  10  40  30  40
PQL  72  83  70  84 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...PG