Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
209 FXUS65 KLKN 250829 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 129 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy and warm conditions are expected today as a weak disturbance moves through the region. Temperatures cool slightly Thursday but quickly warm back up into the 80s and even lower 90s by Saturday across the area as a ridge remains in place across the intermountain west. A cool down is expected next week but dry conditions will persist. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night A weak upper-level disturbance will bring increased winds from the southwest to central and northern NEvada today. Wind speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph are expected in some places. A few high clouds across far northwestern NEvada are expected but otherwise dry conditions will remain. Temperatures cool by a few degrees Thursday but will still be above normal in the 80s and 80s. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s. .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday Asymmetric Omega blocking pattern setting up just to our east will last through the weekend as a strong upper level ridge over the four corners, flanked by a weak upper trough off the California coast, and a much stronger upper low over the Ohio river valley. The reason for the asymmetry is that the stronger low will cut off over the SE US after absorbing the remnants of Helene, while the weaker trough off the west coast will be absorbed back into the main flow across the northern tier by Sunday. Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will be above normal as highs will reach the mid 80s to mid 90s for highs and lows in the mid 40s to low 60s. Winds will be light to breezy in the afternoons running out of the SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. After Sunday, model disagreement persists but no were near the as much as last nights runs. The GFS for the most part has adopted the ECMWF solutions to a degree favoring a strong ridge that as the upper trough off the California coast is absorbed by the stronger westerly flow over the Pacific NW, will allow the ridge to shift west. This will trigger the Omega block to translate to a large scale west coast ridge east coast trough pattern by Tuesday. It is during this reorganization that the westerly flow may reach into Northern Nevada, Monday that will push a weak cool front as far south as the US 50 corridor. While still far from certain, this would cool temperatures beck into the 80s in the north while central NV remains in the low 90s. Before the ridge re-asserts its strength by Wednesday. This will shift the winds Sunday night into Monday out of the north at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. South of the front winds will remain out of the SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH. The one common factor that will be persistent throughout the period will be for quiet conditions under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal forecast sites for at least the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be light under mostly clear skies the rest of today. Winds increase this afternoon with S-SW winds of 10-15 knots gusting 20-25 knots at times with lighter winds below 10 knots returning tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will persist with RH dropping into the single digits this afternoon. A weak weather disturbance passing through today will bring increased winds from the southwest to portions of Nevada. The winds combined with the very low RH will yield elevated fire weather condtions across much of central and northern Nevada. Winds abate somewhat for the latter half of the week but temperatures will remain warm along with persistent dry conditions. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 93/98/98/93