502
FXUS65 KLKN 102032
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
132 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025


* Warming trend underway through at least Wednesday

* Triple digit heat possible in the valleys of Northern and
  Central Nevada each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday
  through Wednesday

* Low chances for isolated thunderstorm activity Tuesday, Wednesday
  and Thursday afternoons across eastern Nevada


&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather maker
for Nevada through at least Tuesday of next week. This ridge
centered over the lower Colorado river valley, will build across
the Great Basin region as it slow drifts west, which will trigger
a warming trend that will see valley temperatures reach the triple
digits for many beginning Sunday, and lasting through at least
Wednesday afternoon. Highs will climb from the mid 80s to mid 90s
this afternoon to reach the upper 90s to upper 100s by Monday
afternoon. Overnight lows which would normally provide relief from
the heat will also warm from the low 50s to low 60s Friday
morning, into the upper 50s to low 70s by Tuesday morning. Will
need to watch the temperature trends, as heat headlines my be
needed for many for the end of the weekend and into the first half
of next week as models show a moderate heat risk for the valley
location along the I-80, US-6, and US-95 corridors as well as Alt
US-93 in SE Elko county. Beginning Tuesday afternoon the GFS
introduces a low 10% to 20% chance for some thunderstorms across
the far eastern third of Nevada. The EC does lend minor support to
this possibility with a few ensemble members, but is overall much
less optimistic. The key factor will be if a upper level low
develops over the Colorado river valley splitting the now
weakening upper ridge in two. If this does develop there will be a
path for monsoonal moisture to force its way into the Silver
State next week, which will help cool temperatures a bit going
into Next Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in high pressure ridge building in over
the the Great Basin trough the first half of next week leading
much warmer temperatures and moderate heat risks.

There is moderate for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday
through Tuesday afternoons across NV due to warm temperatures and
low humidity.

Confidence is low for the possibility for thunderstorm
development during the afternoon hours for Tuesday through
Thursday of next week.


&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)


VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the
next 24 hours, with gentle northwesterly breezes.

AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

A warming trend is expected this weekend. High temperatures across
Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday will be six to eight degrees above normal for this time
of year. This will result in a moderate risk for heat-related
illnesses. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in
Northeastern Elko County Monday afternoon into Monday evening due
to northwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity
values as low as 13 percent.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...87