714
FXUS66 KLOX 292053
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
153 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...29/152 PM.

A significant heatwave will impact a large part of the area for
the upcoming week. Temperatures will become dangerously hot
across interior areas, where daily highs up to 100 to 105 degrees
will be possible, with highs upwards of 105 to 115 possible over
interior valleys and foothills including the Antelope Valley. Late
in the upcoming week, temperatures could reach records at some
locations, and very warm to hot conditions could extend closer to
the coast. Also, areas of night and morning dense fog will be
possible near the coast this weekend and into early parts of the
upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...29/152 PM.

Midlevel heights will continue to rise for the remainder of this
weekend into the upcoming week, as an upper-level ridge builds
westward from the south-central states. This will continue
supporting a warming trend into the upcoming week. By Sunday,
high temperatures are expected to have warmed to the 90s in most
areas, 100-105 over the Antelope Valley, and the 70s near the
coast. More significant warming is expected early in the upcoming
week, with Tuesday high temperatures warming to 95-105 degrees in
most areas, 105-110 over the Antelope Valley, and the middle 70s
to the middle 80s near the coast. The Excessive Heat Watch for
interior areas for the significant heatwave begins on Tuesday.

Local surface pressure gradients will be neutral to moderately
onshore. This overall pattern will maintain night and morning low
clouds and fog in the marine layer near the coast and over
coastal valleys, scattering out and clearing during the afternoon.
With the continued rising heights over the region, there will be a
tendency for the marine layer to become increasingly shallow and
favorable for dense fog development. Coastal areas and some
coastal valleys will have the potential to experience dense fog
tonight into Sunday morning, and again during subsequent overnight
and morning hours.

Otherwise, dry conditions are expected into the upcoming week.
Gusty southwest to northwest winds are expected each afternoon
over interior areas, and strongest -- upwards of 35-45 mph -- over
the Interstate-5 corridor as well as the Antelope Valley and
nearby foothills. However, the issuance of Wind Advisories is
currently unlikely.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...29/152 PM.

Dangerously hot conditions are expected to continue over the
region through the upcoming week, as an upper-level anticyclone
builds offshore and expands eastward over California. Medium-range
model guidance continues to suggest 500-mb heights rising to
around 596-600 dam to the north of the area by late in the
upcoming week. This should correspond to daily high temperatures
up to 100 to 105 possible in many areas away from the coast, with
highs upwards of 105 to 115 possible over interior valleys and
foothills including the Antelope Valley. Warm overnight low
temperatures will worsen the effects of extreme heat, with lows
not falling below 80 degrees at some locations over interior
valleys and nearby foothills. The Excessive Heat Watch continues
for a large portion of the region away from the coast through
late in the upcoming week, when temperatures could reach records
at some locations.

In addition, very warm to hot conditions will have the potential
to bring significant heat impacts toward the coast, starting on
Wednesday and continuing through the remainder of the upcoming
week. This would occur as the marine layer becomes increasingly
shallow and retreats toward the coast provided the rising heights
aloft, which could also eventually limit the chances for night
and morning dense fog. Heat headlines may need to be expanded to
include a larger portion of Southern California in later
forecasts.

Present indications are that precipitation will be unlikely
(below 20% chance) through late in the upcoming week. However,
given how hot and strongly mixed the boundary layer will be over
interior sections during latter parts of the week, any low-
predictability monsoonal moisture influx south of the midlevel
ridge axis could introduce chances for showers or thunderstorms
over higher terrain. Chances are too low for mention in the
forecast at this time, though this scenario will continue to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1851Z.

At 16Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4500 feet with a temperature of 22 Celsius.

Low confidence on clearing at KSBA and KOXR this afternoon. Most
likely VFR conditions will occur by 21Z, but clearing could occur
as early as 19Z or as late as 23Z if at all. Otherwise, moderate
confidence in VFR at all other sites by 18Z. High confidence in
VFR conditions through Sunday at KPRB KBUR KVNY KWJF KPMD. High
confidence in lower ceilings and visibility with less low cloud
coverage tonight compared to last night. Low confidence in timing
and which airports will get ceilings tonight into Sunday. Chances
for ceilings: KSBP (30% LIFR) KSMX (60% LIFR) KSBA (40% LIFR)
KOXR (40% LIFR, 20% IFR) KCMA (40% LIFR, 20% IFR) KSMO (30% LIFR
40% IFR) KLAX (30% LIFR 40% IFR) KLGB (20% LIFR 50% IFR). Cannot
discount VLIFR anywhere, especially KSMX KSBA.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in VFR conditions through at least 02Z.
Moderate confidence on ceilings occurring tonight, high confidence
in ceilings being at least IFR with a 30% chance of LIFR. Cannot
discount a few hours of VLIFR dense fog. Low confidence on timing
with ceilings starting as early 02Z and as late 10Z. High
confidence in any southeast winds staying under 06 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through Sunday with a
less than 10% chance of ceilings after 10Z. High confidence in
seasonal winds.

&&

.MARINE...29/102 PM.

Dense fog (with visibilities one nautical mile or less) will
threaten all waters through at least Sunday. There is a 40 percent
chance that the fog will clear later tonight over Santa Barbara
and San Luis Obispo Counties as the northwest winds increase.
Any fog that form for the remainder of the week will likely be
dense, but expecting the coverage to shrink a little each day.

High confidence in northwest winds increasing quickly tonight
into Sunday and lasting through Monday Night. For the offshore
waters from the Central Coast to Point Conception, There is a 80%
chance of Gales by Sunday afternoon and night, and a 30% chance on
Monday. Otherwise, high confidence in at least Small Craft
Advisory winds from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island. There
is a 20% chance of these winds pushing deep enough into the Santa
Barbara Channel to need a Small Craft Advisory, but the more
likely outcome is for those winds to stay confined to the far
western portion. As a result of these winds, expect building
choppy seas over most waters, even those areas that are not very
windy.

Moderate confidence for abnormally light winds Tuesday through
Wednesday. Winds will likely increase steadily starting Thursday
afternoon through Saturday, but the chance for any Gales during
that period is very small.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect from Tuesday morning
      through late Friday night for zones
      38-88-343>345-353-376>379-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Sunday to 6 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM
      PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM Sunday to 6 AM PDT Monday
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 2 PM PDT Sunday
      for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cohen
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...Cohen

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox