Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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469 FXUS64 KLUB 301134 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 634 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Upper-level ridging will remain over North Texas today but may wobble towards the forecast area this afternoon before shifting east this evening. A weak surface cold front was located along I-40 as of 2 am but this boundary is expected to lift back to the northeast today as a warm front. Unfortunately, with no boundaries across our forecast area to help focus development, precipitation chances look meager at best today. Thickness values will actually decrease slightly today which will keep temperatures near to a few degrees cooler than what was observed yesterday. This will keep high temperatures in the mid 90s to the lower 100s. Southeast winds will keep surface dewpoints in the 60s east of the Caprock escarpment hence it`ll be another day of more muggy conditions but heat index values should "only" top out near 104 degrees hence we will remain Heat Advisory criteria today. Overnight low temperatures will be very similar to this morning, dropping mostly into the 70s by Monday morning. /WI && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Long term forecast remains on track this morning with very few changes. The center of the ridge will remain parked over North Texas on Monday before eventually sliding east and becoming elongated over the Southeast U.S. by Wednesday. So while heights aloft will be decreasing overall thickness values will slowly increase through the middle of the week. The increasing thickness values combined with a slightly more downsloping component to the winds, thanks to strengthening lee surface troughing, will help to increase high temperatures a few degrees both Monday (upper 90s to lower 100s ) and Tuesday (100-105). The lee troughing will allow southerly to southwesterly surface winds to become breezy both Monday and Tuesday with sustained wind speeds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 25-30 mph. By Tuesday the ridge will be far enough east that a monsoonal moisture plume will begin to edge over the far southwest Texas Panhandle. It looks like the best moisture will remain north and west of our forecast area on Tuesday but by Wednesday this plume should be a bit farther southeast leading to increasing precipitation chances at least across the far southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains especially considering that an upper- level trough will be moving through the Four Corners as well. The trough should swing through the forecast area early Thursday which unfortunately will scatter the monsoonal moisture plume. However, as another ridge develops off the western U.S. coast and troughing remains over the central U.S. this will transition the upper air pattern over our forecast area to northwest flow aloft which will remain in place through next weekend. This will help to lower temperatures back closer to average for this time of year as well as increase precipitation chances across the entire forecast area from the end of the week through next weekend. /WI && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Winds are expected to remain lighter today and remain out of the south to southeast. There is a small chance (10%) of a shower or thunderstorm developing around CDS this afternoon which may produce gusty winds but most precipitation will remain north and east of the terminal. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...58