028
FXUS64 KLUB 171932
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
232 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The convective forecast for the rest of the afternoon and this
evening remains largely on track from the previous forecast. A large
trough in western North America will be punctuated by a strong short
wave trough moving out of the central Rockies today into the Central
and Northern Plains. Unfortunately, we will be at the very southern
end of lift associated this this short wave as it ejects out onto
the Plains as it increasingly takes on a negative tilt. Thunderstorm
activity is expected to continue to blossom over eastern New Mexico
over the next several hours as lift spreads over the region. As the
aforementioned short wave moves onto the Plains, a 250mb jet streak
will remain from Arizona through New Mexico continuing to supply
lift over eastern New Mexico into the southwestern Texas Panhandle.
Low level convergence within a surface pressure trough will also
complement the large scale ascent and the development of convection
in eastern New Mexico through the evening. Instability will continue
to grow this afternoon topping out around 1500 J/kg within the mixed
layer from eastern New Mexico into the western South Plains and
extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle. However, this instability will
quickly wane this evening limiting the eastward extent of convective
activity. With the decreasing lift the farther eastward you go,
thunderstorm activity will be hard pressed to reach the I-27/US87
corridor especially over the southern South Plains. There will be
higher chances of activity reaching this corridor in the extreme
southern Texas Panhandle late this evening. Given the amount of
expected instability and increasing shear through the afternoon,
some storms will have the potential to be severe. The primary threat
will be strong to severe wind gusts in the extreme southwestern
Texas Panhandle with relatively dry sub-cloud layers.

Chances for convection are more uncertain for Wednesday afternoon in
the wake of this intense short wave for today. We will see continued
southwest flow aloft but with rising heights. Large scale ascent
will be absent on Wednesday afternoon but the surface pressure
trough/dryline will be dragged farther to the east over the South
Plains. Low level convergence will therefore be more squarely
overhead. Instability will be weaker on Wednesday but is expected to
be uncapped which may bring isolated convection.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The upper trough in the western US is expected to eject eastward
into the Plains over the weekend. As it gets closer...after very
low rain chances Thursday, we should see a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday. The greatest rain
chances should be on the order of only 20 to 40 percent over the
southern Panhandle and northern South Plains. We should see a
slight cooling trend over the weekend along with the increased
moisture and highs should back off 90s to near 100 Thursday to
mostly 80s by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Thunderstorms are expected west of KLBB and KPVW this evening with
a small chance of reaching the terminals late this evening.
However, chances are low of this activity reaching KLBB with
slightly higher chances of reaching KPVW. Otherwise, VFR is
anticipated at all TAF sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...01