Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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443 FXUS64 KLUB 261721 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The center of an upper-level ridge will remain across New Mexico today which will keep our forecast area within northerly flow aloft. While thickness values will remain fairly constant today we are starting off warmer this morning than we did yesterday morning hence high temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer. This means high temperatures above the century mark can be expected area wide. The hottest temperatures are expected across the Rolling Plains which is also where the highest dewpoints will be located hence heat index values as high as 108 degrees will be possible across the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle therefore a Heat Advisory has been issued for this area from noon until 8 pm today. While heat is the main story there is also the potential for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front is, as of 3 am, located across northern Kansas and is expected to continue slowly moving south through the day. This front should be located near I-40 by late this afternoon and serve as a forcing mechanism for storm development. Farther south across our forecast area, forcing will be lacking however forecast soundings indicate that the capping inversion should erode by late afternoon across the forecast area. While deep-layer moisture will be lacking there may be sufficient moisture for isolated thunderstorm development within an environment supporting up to 1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE but shear will be on the meager side. While supercells are not currently expected, a well mixed boundary layer would support the potential for damaging straight line winds and brief heavy rainfall with any thunderstorm that develops. Latest high resolution guidance has been hinting that the far southeast Texas Panhandle into the northern Rolling Plains (where better low-level moisture will be present) may have the best chance at seeing this late afternoon thunderstorm potential. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front in the Panhandle back into the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico. This activity should congeal into a line of storms and move south into the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains this evening. By the time this activity makes into our area though the boundary layer will be stabilizing so storms will be on a weakening trend hence how far into our area these storms make it remain uncertain at this time. Otherwise quiet and warm conditions are expected overnight into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 No changes have been made to the long term forecast this morning, with the main message still being very hot temperatures through Friday. Upper level ridging is expected to remain locked in place with the center of the associated 592mb dam high pressure parked just south of the FA Thursday afternoon. The upper level ridge will then begin to flatten Friday as a strong upper level trough begins to dig into portions of the northern High Plains. With that being said, flow aloft will remain relatively weak as it becomes more zonal through the end of the work week. Unfortunately the long term outlook does not suggest a big cool down for the region anytime soon with upper 90s and triple digit heat expected through the unforeseeable future. These unseasonably warm temperatures will lead to heat index values around or slightly above 105 degrees (Heat Advisory criteria) through Saturday. Breezy southwesterly winds are expected across the region Friday as the pressure gradient begins to tighten from a strong lee low tracking into northeastern NM. This in combination with westerly flow aloft and increased thickness values will lead to very warm temperatures on Friday. 850mb temperatures around 30C to 34C suggest triple digit values from 100F to 105F across the FA. The weekend will allow for a short and small reprieve in the triple digit heat as the upper level ridge breaks down and thickness values decrease. However, temperatures will only cool by a few degrees with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s still expected. By the beginning of next week, the triple digit heat will make its grand return as the upper level high and ridge builds back over the N.TX/S.OK region. A plume of monsoonal moisture wrapping around the center of the high pressure system, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, and ensemble PWATs ranging from 1.25" to 1.80" suggest an abnormally moist environment this weekend. A weak front is expected to track into the northern Texas Panhandle Friday night where it will then stall just north of the FA or in the vicinity of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. This in addition to a disturbance in the flow aloft over eastern NM may serve as enough lift for thunderstorm development this weekend. However, the coverage of storms remain uncertain with deterministic models varying on the position of the frontal boundary. If this front remains more to our north, we could see a drier outcome unfold through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue at all terminals through tomorrow. There is a potential for thunderstorms to develop northwest of LBB and PVW. However, confidence remains low that any airports will be impacted, so have left mentions out of the TAF at this time. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ026-032-038-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...DF