697
FXUS64 KLUB 240823
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
323 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Upper level high pressure centered near El Paso today and tonight
with a significant extension of the ridge eastward across Texas will
keep the weather fair but hot across the forecast area. South winds
of 5-15 mph are expected through the short term period with some
diurnal variance between southwest and southeast, dew point
temperatures continuing to decrease slightly, and skies generally
clear. Temperatures today and tonight will show little change from
the previous 24 hours. NBM and METMOS are almost identical and have
a good recent track record and will continue with them this
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

No major changes made to the long-term package this morning. With
the main message still being very warm temperatures through the
upcoming week. By Tuesday the upper level ridge and associated high
pressure is expected to be centered across the southwestern CONUS
where it will remain positioned through Wednesday, before beginning
its migration eastward back over the FA by Thursday as an upper
level trough digs through northern CONUS.

Very warm and above seasonal normal temperatures in the upper 90s to
105 degrees are expected Tuesday through Friday. This will lead to
heat advisory level concerns Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly off the
Caprock where heat indices are near 105 degrees. It will be
interesting to see how much moisture we will be able to retain this
week with dewpoints over the past week well above normal for this
time of year. At this time, we will opt out of any heat headlines in
this forecast package given the uncertainty on if moisture will be
able to hold to sustain 105 degree criteria values Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon. Regardless, it is going to be a very warm week
across the FA with increasing thickness values each day, clear
skies, and warm southerly flow. Expect temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s across the Caprock, while temperatures off the Caprock
will range from the upper 90s to near 105 degrees. Remember to
exercise caution if you have to be outside, especially during peak
heating hours. Drink plenty of water and find shade when possible.

Chances for precipitation remain in the forecast each
afternoon/evening through the long-term period. Ridge riding storms
will have the chance to track down the eastern side of the upper
level ridge that is positioned off to our west, where they may
track into portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and
northern South Plains. However, our best chance for more area-wide
precipitation looks to be Wednesday and Friday evening where we
will likely see some reinforced lift from weak FROPA passing
through the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...07