727
FXUS64 KLUB 281132
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
632 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Heights will be on the increase today over the forecast area as
the center of the upper-level ridge attempts to nose back
northward behind the departing shortwave. This shortwave
strengthened a lee surface low that will slowly slide eastward
today across southern Kansas. This will lead to a tightening
surface pressure gradient across the forecast area and finally
bring a return of drier southwesterly flow. The combination of
drier air, a slight downsloping component to the winds, and
increasing thickness values means that high temperatures will
climb back into the 100-107 degree range today. Therefore yet
another Heat Advisory has been issued for locations east of the
Caprock escarpment from 1 pm until 8 pm today where high
temperatures of 105+ degrees are likely.

The other forecast concern for today is in regards to the potential
for some high based showers/thunderstorms to develop late this
afternoon and evening. Model guidance shows a SW-NE axis of surface
based CAPE around 500 J/kg moving into the forecast area this
afternoon. With surface temperatures in the lower 100s this should
be enough to overcome any capping that is in place as convective
temperatures are reached. However, with the well mixed boundary
layer, cloud bases will be around 10,000 feet which leaves plenty
of room for evaporation to occur hence downbursts will be a
concern today (DCAPE values of 1600 J/kg will be present). Of
note, the latest CAM guidance seems to be backing off on the
instability moving into our area hence they are also coming in
drier than previous runs but feel that enough of a signal still
exists to keep 10% thunderstorm mentions across the South Plains
into the far south central Texas Panhandle. The potential for any
showers/storms will quickly dissipate this evening as we lose
daytime heating which will leave us with a quiet but warm
overnight as low temperatures only drop into the 70s to lower 80s.
/WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The upper-level ridge will continue to shift northward on Saturday
and become centered over North Texas. However, overall thickness
values will actually decrease Saturday over the forecast area
compared to today which will keep temperatures 2-5 degrees cooler
(mid 90s to lower 100s). Unfortunately, our surface winds will once
again become southeasterly so surface moisture will stream into the
Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s hence heat index values of around 105 degrees
is possible. A weak surface cold front is expected to enter the
Texas Panhandle and then stall near I-40 by the afternoon. This
boundary will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development and
unfortunately it appears that it will be a bit too far north for
better precipitation chances in our area. However, guidance also
indicates an area of better mid-level moisture rotating around the
western edge of the upper-level high across the far southwest
Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains. Hot temperatures
combined with the better moisture may lead to scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon and early evening.
Eventually, the thunderstorms in the Panhandle may congeal into a
line and move to the southeast potentially impacting the far
southeast Texas Panhandle Saturday evening into early Sunday
morning. Strong straight line winds and brief heavy rainfall would
be the primary concern with this activity. The lingering boundary
may keep precipitation chances going into Sunday but monsoon
moisture will continue lifting north as the center of the upper-
level ridge also slides northwest. Fortunately, the increased
cloud cover at least in the morning will keep temperatures cooler
with most locations remaining in the 90s.

The center of the ridge will remain over the forecast area through
Monday evening before sliding back east over North Texas by Tuesday
morning and then continuing east but elongating across the
southeastern US by the middle of the week. This will allow high
temperatures to slowly climb Monday into the mid 90s to lower 100s
and then peak once again on Tuesday when most locations make it
back above the century mark. Fortunately, when the ridge slides
east this will allow monsoonal moisture to move back over at least
portions of the forecast area Tuesday through the end of next
week. Hence each afternoon and evening the South Plains and far
southeast Texas Panhandle will have a chance at precipitation
although widespread rain is not currently anticipated. With the
increased moisture and lower thickness values high temperatures
should drop back into the 90s by the end of next week. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Surface
winds will increase at all sites mid morning with breezy
southwesterly winds continuing through the early evening hours. A
few high based showers and thunderstorms will be possible around
LBB and PVW late this afternoon and early evening with the main
concern being gusty and erratic winds. Check density altitudes.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...58