229
FXUS64 KLZK 241939
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
239 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate MVFR ceilings
across northern and parts of central portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures ranged from near 70 along the Missouri border, to the
mid 80s in the south central potions.

A weak boundary in northwest sections of the state will move
southeast through Wednesday, and will promote widely scattered
showers.

A more focused precipitation event is expected for Thursday (and
beyond), mainly for northeast sections. Upper level energy is
forecast to form a cut-off low, then slowly drift southwestward.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Tropical Storm (eventually Hurricane Helene) will move northward
across the eastern GoM across the FL panhandle late this week,
moving inland late Thursday. Once the tropical system moves inland,
it will begin to interact with a system over the Southern
Mississippi Valley region, eventually merging by early Saturday.

Between Thursday and Monday, the system over the S MS valley region
will begin pulling moisture from the tropical system and wrapping
the moisture around its north side, to produce rain chances across
much of AR. The majority of this rain is expected to occur Thursday
and Friday, and northern portions of the state look to receive the
higher accumulations. 2-3+ inches of rain are forecast across
roughly the northern half of the state, with a trace to around 1.5
inches across the southern half. The system looks to move on,
exiting the region to the east, on Monday. The forecast looks dry
from late Monday through at least the middle of next week.

Temperatures will start out below average, with highs in the lower
to mid 70s across the state. We`ll see a bit of a warming trend
through the period, as temperatures return to near average, with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s
to 60s through early next week. Looking beyond the long-term
forecast period, the Climate Prediciton Center favors near average
temperatures from Sept 29 through Oct 3. Their precipitation
forecast favors below average precipitation across the west and
southwest part of the state, and slightly above average
precipitation across the northeast corner of Arkansas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

MVFR ceilings will affect central and northern sections through
21z. Areas of MVFR visibility due to fog are expected late
tonight, most noticeably across northern sections.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  77  57  77 /  20  20  10  30
Camden AR         63  80  59  80 /  30  40  10  10
Harrison AR       55  75  54  75 /  20  20   0  20
Hot Springs AR    63  82  60  81 /  50  20   0  10
Little Rock   AR  65  80  62  81 /  50  30  10  20
Monticello AR     65  80  60  81 /  20  40  10  10
Mount Ida AR      59  81  56  81 /  50  20   0  10
Mountain Home AR  56  77  56  76 /  20  20  10  30
Newport AR        61  77  57  77 /  30  20  10  40
Pine Bluff AR     63  79  59  80 /  30  30  10  10
Russellville AR   60  81  58  80 /  40  10  10  10
Searcy AR         62  78  58  79 /  40  20  10  20
Stuttgart AR      64  78  59  79 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...53