Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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269 FXUS64 KLZK 280542 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The upper level ridge over the SW US will be migrating eastward and flattening out a bit, eventually bringing the center of the ridge over Arkansas by Saturday. At the surface, the remnant cold front that passed thru the area yesterday will be moving back north as a warm front tomorrow and tomorrow night, and on Saturday another cold front will be approaching the area from the northwest. The front is expected to enter the area in the extended term, but showers and thunderstorms ahead of the boundary will result in increased chances for precipitation across the north on Saturday. All eyes are on the heat building back across the area tomorrow and Saturday. While temps will start to increase notably tomorrow, dewpoints will lag a bit, and heat indices look as if they will be below heat advisory criteria. Saturday will be another story, however. The moisture will be back in the wake of the warm front, and high temperatures will be in the 95-100 degree range across much of the forecast area. I am anticipating that heat advisories will be required for much of the area, and possibly an excessive heat warning for some locations. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A brief break from the heat will be noted across parts of the state Sun-Mon as a cold front slides south into the area. This front will help trigger showers and thunderstorms Sunday, through the afternoon/evening hours. This precip and associated cloud cover will help temper forecast highs a bit, at least across northern parts of the state. The front will actually push south of the state which will provide slightly lower T/Td values on Monday. After that, the heat returns. Hot and humid conditions will be noted across the state through much of the long term portion of the forecast as H500 ridging remains parked over the region. This includes daily high temperatures in the mid 90s F to around 100 F with Td values in the 60s/70s F. Most days will see at least portions of the area requiring some sort of heat related headline due to heat indices in excess of 105. HeatRisk values will primarily be 3 (Major) or higher. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 High pressure and clear skies continue over Arkansas. Expect some low clouds in the southeast and patchy fog during the morning with MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions are anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 93 76 96 76 / 0 0 10 30 Camden AR 96 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 93 73 95 72 / 10 0 30 40 Hot Springs AR 95 74 98 76 / 0 0 0 20 Little Rock AR 95 79 99 81 / 0 0 10 20 Monticello AR 94 78 96 78 / 0 0 10 10 Mount Ida AR 94 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 20 Mountain Home AR 92 74 94 73 / 0 0 20 40 Newport AR 93 76 97 77 / 0 0 10 30 Pine Bluff AR 93 77 96 78 / 0 0 10 10 Russellville AR 95 75 99 78 / 0 0 10 20 Searcy AR 93 74 98 77 / 0 0 10 20 Stuttgart AR 92 77 96 79 / 0 0 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...51