Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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949 FXUS64 KLZK 230513 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The ridge of high pressure across the southern to northeastern CONUS is breaking down, as an upper trough, surface Low pressure and cold front move across the south-central and Midwestern states. These features will continue to develop cloud cover, rain showers and thunderstorms across portions of the CWA through the next couple of days. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. Their main threats will be strong wind gusts, hail, with potential for heavy rain and localized flooding. The showers and storms will begin across northern AR Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, spreading across western and central portions of the state by Monday morning. Coverage will expand to cover much of the forecast area by Monday evening and will be confined mainly to southern and eastern portions of the state by Tuesday. Temperatures remain well above normal Sunday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to the mid 90s. As the system progresses eastward, temperatures will start to drop. By Monday afternoon, highs across west and north Arkansas will be in the lower to upper 70s, but in the upper 80s to lower 90s across central, southern and eastern AR. By Tuesday afternoon, highs will be in the 70s-80s across much of the state. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 At the start of the period a fairly robust H500 cyclone will be making progress southward toward the state from the Central Plains/Mid-MS Valley. This feature will be surrounded by ridges in place across the western US and along the Gulf Coast/Southeast US. This feature will settle in over the state for the mid to late week timeframe and will become cutoff from the main flow. While this feature rotates its way around the vicinity of the state, sfc ridging will be in place just to the north with the remnant cold front to the south. This setup will provide persistent cloud cover, occasional rain chances and below normal temperatures across Arkansas. Things become more uncertain by late week into next weekend as what could become Helene moves toward the eastern Gulf Coast. Continued flanking by mid-level ridges could lead to some mutual interaction between these features across the region. Confidence remains low at this time, but if these two features were to interact as depicted by available 12z model data, there could be an axis of heavy rainfall in close proximity to the resulting cyclone. Additionally, below normal temperatures would certainly persist as long as the H500 low remains nearby. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VCSH wl lkly persist near Nrn terminals overnight Sun thru Mon mrng. MVFR VISBY`s wl be possible acrs Nrn terminals as well in b/w VCSH. Elsewhere, VFR condns should persist thru much of the overnight PD. Mon aftn, a cdfrnt wl be moving slowly thru the state, w/ Sctd convection expected to develop acrs the N/Wrn half of the state, towards 18-22Z Mon aftn. Intermittent MVFR condns are anticipated w/ this precip activity. 00Z and later, precip covg should shift towards Cntrl AR, though covg may also begin to dissipate in the immediate hours after 00Z. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs are expected to persist behind the frnt acrs at least the N/Wrn half of the FA by Mon evng, w/ winds bcmg Nrly. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 82 65 79 60 / 50 60 40 20 Camden AR 90 68 84 63 / 30 30 30 30 Harrison AR 73 60 73 57 / 80 30 10 20 Hot Springs AR 88 64 84 62 / 40 40 10 30 Little Rock AR 89 68 84 66 / 30 40 20 30 Monticello AR 92 71 85 65 / 10 30 40 30 Mount Ida AR 85 62 83 59 / 40 30 10 20 Mountain Home AR 75 62 75 58 / 80 50 10 20 Newport AR 84 67 79 62 / 40 60 50 20 Pine Bluff AR 91 69 83 64 / 20 50 30 30 Russellville AR 82 64 81 61 / 50 40 10 20 Searcy AR 87 67 82 63 / 40 60 30 20 Stuttgart AR 90 69 82 65 / 20 60 40 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...72