561
FXUS64 KLZK 251706
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1206 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Sfc cdfrnt was analyzed mvng acrs the N/Wrn half of the FA, w/ an
asctd band of precip positioned over Wrn to Cntrl AR. An upper
shortwave maneuvering acrs the Srn Cntrl US wl lkly sustain ongoing
precip thru daylight Wed mrng, w/ covg quickly waning beyond 12Z as
drier air behind the frnt continues to mix into the region.

Thru the day, covg of precip should continue to dissipate as the
frnt clears the state to the S/E. Cooler temps and drier air wl cont
to be ushered into the FA thru the day today, w/ most areas topping
out in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Heading into Thurs, attn wl turn to the tropics, as TC Helene is
expected to be nearing landfall invof the Big Bend region of FL,
sometime Thurs evng based on the latest forecast track guidance.
Post-landfall, model guidance has been quite consistent over the
past several days on a Fujiwhara type soln, in which the warm-core
low of Helene wl interact w/ a cutoff cold-core upper low in place
over the Mid-South. In the absence of stronger mid-lvl steering
flow, this phenomenon looks to centrifuge the remnants of Helene
inland and N/wrd quickly, before beginning to rotate around the
antecedent cold-core upper low. This should allow for some tropical
moisture and precip acrs at least the N/Ern half of the FA heading
into Fri.

Due to the forecast trajectory of Helene, most tropical-related
impacts are not anticipated, w/ the exception of some locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, based on where the
greatest forecast rainfall axis currently lies for the local region,
e.g. N/Ern AR to S/Ern MO, local river flooding impacts wl be
possible, including higher stages acrs the White, Black, and Cache
River basins.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Not many changes are noted this morning in the long term. At the
beginning of the period, a robust storm system aloft will be in
northern Mississippi. The system will be wedged between ridges of
high pressure in the southern Rockies and just off the mid Atlantic
Coast, and will have nowhere to go. Meanwhile, the remnants of
tropical system Helene will be inland, and probably over Georgia.

Models continue to show some interaction between the two systems on
Friday, with an eventual merger over the Tennessee Valley Friday
night/early Saturday. Moisture will build from the southeast states
in our direction, with the most significant moisture from central
into northeast sections of the state. This is where the forecast
calls for one to more than two inches of rain, with amounts dropping
off quickly in the western counties.

Over time and with each run of the models, rainfall totals have
gradually decreased. This is because the system aloft is more to the
east than originally progged, and the merger with Helene will also
likely occur to the east. By far, the heaviest rain/flooding will
occur from the Florida Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachians.

Heading into the weekend, the merged system will be slow to exit the
region, with lingering clouds and isolated to scattered showers
Saturday/Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are expected Monday/Tuesday.

As far as temperatures, readings will start off below seasonal, and
will gradually reach seasonal levels as the period progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Expect VFR flight category over the period from early Wednesday
afternoon through early Thursday afternoon. No degradation of
CIGS or VSBY is anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  78  62  70 /  10  20  50  70
Camden AR         58  80  60  74 /   0  10  20  40
Harrison AR       53  76  57  68 /   0  10  40  60
Hot Springs AR    59  81  61  74 /   0  10  20  50
Little Rock   AR  61  81  64  73 /   0  10  30  60
Monticello AR     61  81  62  74 /   0  10  20  40
Mount Ida AR      56  81  57  75 /   0  10  20  50
Mountain Home AR  56  77  60  70 /   0  20  50  60
Newport AR        58  77  62  69 /  10  20  50  70
Pine Bluff AR     58  79  61  73 /   0  10  30  60
Russellville AR   58  81  60  74 /   0  10  30  60
Searcy AR         58  79  62  72 /   0  20  40  70
Stuttgart AR      59  78  62  72 /   0  10  40  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...74