Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
503 FXUS64 KLZK 250504 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1204 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 This morning it looked as if our afternoon heat index values were going to exceed 110 in a number of areas, so we upgraded portions of the heat advisory to an excessive heat warning. The upper level ridge across the area continues to retrograde toward the swrn US. Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area again tomorrow. We have an existing heat advisory in effect thru late tomorrow, and at the moment it doesn`t look like heat indices will be hot enough to warrant another excessive heat advisory...although we will have to take a close look at the anticipated afternoon conditions tomorrow morning. Some changes are on the way. As the ridge continues to retrograde over the southwestern US, a northwesterly flow pattern will develop across the area, and a surface cold front will start to push into the area Wednesday. The cold front isn`t actually `cold` per se, but will bring some slightly cooler and drier air to the reason...emphasis on `slight`. However, it should be enough to kick of some showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, with POPs across the area in the 40-60 pct range on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Once again, hot temperatures will headline the long term fcst into the new month. Mean H500 ridging wl remain in place over the Cont Divide thru the end of the week, before upper flow transitions to bcmg more zonal acrs the CONUS. Initially, the primary upper level high and asctd greater anomalous H500 heights wl remain displaced to the west of the FA, centered over the Desert S/W regions, w/ regionally hot and humid condns persisting locally. Some relief fm the heat is expected again on Thurs, after rain and a weak cdfrnt passage on Wed, w/ area temps topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s fm Nrn AR to Cntrl and Srn AR, respectively. Fri thru Sat, temps wl be on the rise again to the mid to upper 90s, w/ the upper closed high shifting E/wrd fm the Desert S/W, and centering over the Srn Cntrl US. Stronger perturbed upper flow acrs the Nrn US is expected to recede towards the US/Canada border. Greater synoptic subsidence via diff anti-cyclonic VA along the inflection point of upper ridging/troughing over the Cntrl to Nrn Plains should result in a strong sfc high developing. This sfc high pressure is progged to move S/Ewrd acrs the Midwest and OH River Valley, to the Nrn periphery of the FA. Another weak cdfrnt may bring some slightly cooler temps and incrsg rain chances to portions of Nrn to Cntrl AR late Sun into Mon night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Expect VFR conditions over the entire forecast period from early Tuesday morning thru early Wednesday morning. Surface winds across all terminals will begin light and variable to light and out the south to south-southwest. On Tuesday morning, surface winds will become established out of the southwest to south-southwest from around 7 to 10 knots. The northern site of KHRO can expect gusty surface winds later Tuesday morning in excess of 18 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 98 74 91 71 / 10 10 60 10 Camden AR 98 76 95 72 / 10 10 40 20 Harrison AR 96 71 88 68 / 10 20 60 10 Hot Springs AR 98 76 96 72 / 10 10 40 10 Little Rock AR 99 79 94 75 / 10 10 40 20 Monticello AR 98 78 94 74 / 10 10 50 30 Mount Ida AR 96 74 94 71 / 10 10 40 10 Mountain Home AR 97 73 87 69 / 10 20 60 10 Newport AR 100 76 93 72 / 10 20 60 10 Pine Bluff AR 98 77 94 73 / 10 10 50 20 Russellville AR 98 76 94 73 / 10 10 50 10 Searcy AR 98 75 94 71 / 10 10 50 20 Stuttgart AR 98 79 93 74 / 10 10 50 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017- 024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123- 130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313- 340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....72 AVIATION...74