988
FXUS64 KLZK 201820
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
120 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

H500 ridging to the east of the area will expand west over the state
Fri-Sat. This will provide dry conditions along with increasing
temperatures the next couple of days. Td values will largely remain
below 70 F which will limit heat indices to below heat advisory
criteria. Additionally, NWS HeatRisk values are expected to mainly
be in the 1-2 range through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/MONDAY:

In the upper lvls, an elongated region of high pressure extending
from over the Southwestern region of the CONUS into over the Mid-
South region of the CONUS will be positioned throughout the
beginning of the long-term forecast period.

At the sfc, high pressure will meander across the region with
predominately southwesterly winds keeping conditions dry and hot.

In response, expect the hottest temperatures of the year across the
Natural State with a few locations across the state making a run at
and reaching the triple-digit mark. Heat index values will be likely
in the 100s for a decent portion of the state on Sunday, Monday, and
possibly Tuesday. A few locations may see heat index values in the
mid to upper 100s in Heat Advisory criteria. It will be a must
during the weekend the utilize heat safety practices such as taking
frequent breaks out of the direct exposure of the heat along with
staying hydrating whether you are recreating or working.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:

The upper lvl ridge becomes fixated over the Desert Southwest region
of the CONUS with northwesterly flow transitioning over Arkansas and
a shortwave that will approach the state on Wednesday.

At the sfc, a frontal boundary will approach the state from the
north in cohesion with high pressure positioned across the Mid-
Atlantic states ushering in gulf moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
which will result in increased POP chances from mid to late next
week, especially as the frontal boundary approaches the state on
Wednesday into Thursday.

In response, expect above normal temperatures to continue,
especially in the middle of the week before the approaching frontal
boundary later in the week may drop temperatures by a few degrees,
but significant cooling is not expected. POPs will increase over
this period as an approaching frontal boundary will present the
opportunity of rain and isolated thunderstorms with gulf moisture in
place before the FROPA on Thursday. Later next week does look to
offer us a slight and brief reprieve from the hot and dry conditions
that will greet us into the weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with sfc winds out of
the E-SE at less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  92  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         69  94  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       67  89  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    70  93  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  73  94  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     71  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      68  92  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  68  90  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        72  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     71  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   71  93  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         70  93  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      73  92  74  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67