394
FXUS64 KLZK 281141
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
641 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

An upper level ridge is working its way eastward toward Arkansas
this morning. The upper ridge will be over Arkansas Saturday and
will remain in place through Saturday night.

High pressure and subsidence will keep dry conditions over the state
through early Saturday. A cold front will drop out of the Plains
into north Arkansas Saturday evening. This will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the north Saturday and north and
central sections Saturday night.

Warm conditions will continue today but warmer conditions are
expected Saturday. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s
and in the mid to upper 90s Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the
70s and in the lower 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

SUNDAY/MONDAY:

In the upper lvls, the elongated ridge center will be positioned
over a region from the Southern Plains eastward over Arkansas. At
the sfc, a cold front will be moving through the state during the
day on Sunday and move into northern Louisiana during the day on
Monday to be draped along the I-20 corridor.

Expect an overall increase of POPs across the CWA as the frontal
boundary moves across the state. POPs will linger across southern
Arkansas on Monday as the frontal boundary moves into northern
Louisiana. Rain and isolated thunderstorms can be expected during
this period with greater coverage across the CWA on Monday and more
focus across southern Arkansas into the day on Monday.

Temperatures will be near normal with rain-cooled air and a slightly
cooler and drier airmass occupying the state over the two day period
of Sunday and Monday with respect to both low and high temperatures.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

In the upper lvls, the center of the ridge becomes placed directly
over the Natural State. At the sfc, high pressure remains across the
Mid-Western region of the CONUS as the state will be positioned
between two dynamic synoptic systems on Tuesday with a cold front
approaching the Arkansas/Missouri border on Wednesday which will
elevate POPs across the CWA on Wednesday.

Expect rain and isolated thunderstorm chances to return on Wednesday
across the state as a frontal boundary approaches the CWA from the
north nearing the Arkansas/Missouri.

Tuesday and Wednesday temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal as rain and thunderstorm chances will be isolated in nature
as the frontal boundary only approaches the northern fringes of the
CWA by Wednesday in conjunction with a Mid-Atlantic sfc high
pressure that will be ushering in Gulf Moisture likely returning the
need for heat headlines leading up to and through Independence Day.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY):

The impending cold front that nears the CWA will slow significantly,
but still be close enough to provide rain and thunderstorm chances
across the CWA, mainly north and along the I-40 corridor, however
these chances will be isolated in nature. Simply put, I see no need
to begin canceling outdoor plans on Independence Day, but the need
will exist to remain vigilant of any isolated thunderstorm that does
develop, especially for those participating in outdoor activities.

Temperatures in both relation to low and high temperatures overall
will be roughly 4 to 8 degrees above normal across the state and the
need for heat headlines will be needed on Independence Day.
Hydration and breaks out of the heat will be a must with dangerous
heat index values across the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

High pressure continues over Arkansas. High clouds continue to
stream into the state from northern Oklahoma and expect them
through much of the morning. Low clouds have developed in the
southeast but will not last too long. VFR conditions are
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     94  75  96  75 /   0   0  20  40
Camden AR         96  75  98  78 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       93  74  95  72 /  10  10  40  40
Hot Springs AR    96  74  98  77 /   0   0  10  20
Little Rock   AR  96  78  98  80 /   0   0  10  30
Monticello AR     95  78  97  80 /   0   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      94  74  97  75 /   0   0  10  20
Mountain Home AR  92  73  94  73 /   0  10  40  40
Newport AR        93  75  97  77 /   0   0  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     94  77  97  79 /   0   0   0  20
Russellville AR   95  75  98  77 /   0   0  20  30
Searcy AR         94  74  98  78 /   0   0  10  30
Stuttgart AR      92  78  96  80 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...51