029
FXUS64 KMAF 291056
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
556 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Well, not much to write home about for the short term with a weak,
elongated ridge in place from northern Mexico through the southeast
US. With the ridge being more displaced and weaker than yesterday
(coincident with a weaker low-level thermal ridge), high
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler for most, albeit still
quite hot. A similar trend follows for Sunday as well, with triple
digit heat limited to the Rio Grande/Pecos river valleys and the
western Low Rolling Plains. Precipitation chances will be rinse and
repeat from the last few days, with an isolated storm or two
possible across the Davis Mountains and far western high terrain
both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Other than the heat and
slim chance for storms, the only noteworthy feature in the short
term will be the LLJ providing breezy to gusty conditions across the
region both early this morning and again late this evening/overnight.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The stagnant weather pattern of this weekend continues into the
first half of the new week. Mid-level ridging holds firm over much
of the southern CONUS but becomes a bit more centered closer to the
ArkLaTex by midweek. This keeps temperatures well into the 90s and
100s each afternoon with little chance of rain for most. The
exception is the higher elevations where diurnal convection can be
expected most afternoons. There is a possible light at the end of
the proverbial tunnel to end the week. Forecast ensembles weaken the
mid-level ridge begins over the southern Great Plains as it becomes
centered over the Four Corners region. This pattern may allow
disturbances and troughs to dive into the southern Great Plains on
the east side of the ridge. This change would allow for slightly
cooler temperatures and a chance of thunderstorms across much of the
region during the afternoon and evening. Let`s hope this pattern
change holds to end the doldrums of Summer we have been stuck in.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions and southeast winds continue for all TAF sites.
Gusty winds can be expected by afternoon at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                103  75  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
Dryden                   98  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            99  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           94  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                   101  73  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    97  64  93  63 /  10  10  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    103  78 101  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...91