598
FXUS64 KMAF 011526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1026 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

As much as I`d like to be talking about an exciting pattern change
coming, we`ll see more of the same weather we`ve seen to start the
week. The upper ridge remains in control across the southern Plains
today, but nudges eastward some for Tuesday. With this, high
temperatures this afternoon will be nearly identical to yesterday`s.
A more eastward ridge center allows southwesterly flow to strengthen
the low level thermal ridge some, ticking high temperatures up a few
degrees for Tuesday. A few spots may need a Heat Advisory for
Tuesday, notably the Big Bend and western Low Rolling Plains.
Typical summertime diurnally driven storms continue across the
Davis/Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains both today and
tomorrow.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The previously advertised and long awaited pattern change remains on
track as we head through the end of the week into the weekend. The
ever present southern CONUS ridge begins to slowly weaken across the
southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The effects of
this change won`t be immediately felt as Wednesday and Thursday
remain hot in the 90s and 100s. Afternoon diurnal convection
continues across the western elevations, though should be more
widespread as large-scale subsidence weakens. By Friday and the
weekend, heights decrease as weak troughing replaces the ridge
across the southern Great Plains. These decreased heights drop
temperatures out of the upper 90s and low 100s into the lower 90s
for many. While this remains warm, these temperatures are below
normal for early July and offer some relief. With the arrival of the
weak troughing, disturbances may sink southeast far enough to aid in
the development of scattered thunderstorms across even the lower
elevations of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Further aiding in
more widespread rainfall potential will be a large fetch of mid-
level moisture being channeled northward between the southwestern
and southeastern U.S. ridge centers. Rain chances are lowest across
the lower elevations but still present, while the higher elevations
and adjacent areas are most likely to experience appreciable rains.
Regardless, a slightly cooler and wetter pattern is a welcomed sight
to begin our July.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty
this afternoon. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field
by or shortly after issuance time, w/bases ~ 7-9 kft AGL, and a
lesser one near the end of the forecast period, w/bases ~ 6-7 kft
AGL. Convective chances are slim-to-none.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 104  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 76 102  77 102 /  10  10  20  40
Dryden                   74 102  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 103  76 103 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           72  94  73  93 /  10  20  30  50
Hobbs                    73 102  73 102 /   0  10  10  20
Marfa                    64  97  66  97 /  10  20  20  30
Midland Intl Airport     76 102  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   76 102  76 101 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     77 106  77 104 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44