475
FXUS64 KMAF 160439
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1139 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

There is no longer any deep convection with the remnants of Ileana
in the Gulf of California off the Mexican coast and it is reflected
in much less cloud cover seen today than yesterday over West Texas
and southeastern New Mexico. This is allowing temperatures to heat
up and highs should reach into the 90s everywhere but the mountains
this afternoon. Much the same is expected tomorrow though models are
showing a little more low level moisture reaching our CWA. This will
translate to increased low level clouds holding temps a couple of
degrees cooler than today with isolated showers developing in the
Davis Mountains. Lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The weather pattern remains rather quiet through much of the week. A
strong blocking pattern has taken shape with a nearly stationary
upper-high near the Great Lakes. Milder ridging remains over the
southern Great Plains with persistent troughing over the western
CONUS. Tuesday afternoon brings a little bit to talk about as a
shortwave pivots through the larger scale western CONUS trough. This
feature brings modest ascent and surface convergence to the western
mountains and Southeast New Mexico. This should allow at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon.
Temperatures remain above normal in the upper 80s and low 90s for
the bulk of the area. Overnight temperatures will be mild with
persistent southeasterly winds, keeping most in the upper 60s and
the low 70s. These temperatures remain much the same on Thursday,
though with mostly sunny skies and no rain expected.

A pattern shift appears likely to take place by the end of the week
into next weekend. A second shortwave digs into the Four Corners
region and begins to slowly translate east late Friday. This may set
up widespread thunderstorms Friday afternoon. As this trough moves
into the central Great Plains during the weekend, a cold front dives
south behind it. This not only brings the potential for continued
rain chances this weekend, but a return of cooler temperatures. The
exact timing of the cold front and coverage of any showers and
thunderstorms remains a bit uncertain at this time, but ensembles
remain consistent in this general pattern for the weekend. Stay
tuned!

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty at
times in places during the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest
convective temps too high for cu in the northeast, whereas
development is likely farther southwest late morning/early
afternoon, w/bases starting ~ 4.5-9 kft AGL. No convection
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   68  90  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            65  91  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  83  65  85 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                    64  89  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    59  87  62  89 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     67  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   68  90  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44