Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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397 FXUS64 KMAF 291931 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 231 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 We have had four 100 degree days in a row here at MAF, will today be the fifth? Whether we do or not won`t really matter as it will be hot today, and the heat continues into tomorrow. High pressure remains over North Texas keeping our CWA under a deep southeasterly to southerly flow. The proximity of the high keeps the heat on us, but there is enough moisture from the Gulf making its way west that highs remain well off anything record breaking. Still it`s hot enough for heat exhaustion to be a threat so stay hydrated if outdoors. Mountain convection will be a bit sparse today but should increase tomorrow with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains providing more much needed rainfall. Overnight lows remain uncomfortably warm only dropping into the 70s at most locations. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Heading into the day on Monday, conditions across the area remain mostly unchanged with highs reaching into the upper 90s to low 100s. Lows stay a few degrees above normal as return flow continues bring warm, moist air into the region. This pattern continues into the middle of the coming week. Showers and storms form and dissipate over the mountains to the west each afternoon and evening. Then, a change in the pattern to end the week. Long range guidance is coming into agreement on the ridge over the Southern US weakening and shifting eastward and a new ridge to move over the Four Corners to the west. While the strength and position of that ridge remains uncertain, a move to this pattern increases rain chances for the region. Lingering low level moisture and shortwave troughs moving out of the northwest around the edge of the ridge are a typical pattern for the summer monsoon season. Where and how much rain falls is not clear at the moment, but those details will be fleshed out leading up to the pattern shift. Stay tuned! -Stickney&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions and light occasionally gusty southeast winds will continue the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 75 98 73 99 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 75 96 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 74 98 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 90 69 91 / 0 10 10 10 Hobbs 73 98 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 94 61 94 / 10 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 75 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 76 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 78 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...10