Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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747 FXUS64 KMAF 251738 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Look for another hot day on tap for the area, but with isolated storms possible over more of SE NM than what we have the past few days. The center of the upper ridge will shift west today allowing for slightly better moisture to make its way in to the region along with less subsidence. Isolated showers and storms should develop as usual across the Davis Mountains with more storms developing across portions of eastern NM during peak heating. Given weak northerly flow around the ridge storm will have a southern trajectory. A storm or two could make into northern portions of the Permian Basin, but the best chance for any measurable rain will stay over NM. Temperatures will continue an upward trend today with highs reaching 100 for all but the higher terrain above 5K ft. After a mild night, we will likely repeat everything Wednesday. The only difference may be better coverage of storms across the west from Artesia south to the Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Upper ridging flattens across the South as a strong trough enters the northern Rockies late week. Unfortunately, the hot temperatures will remain with widespread 100s for highs through Friday. With the ridge being weaker, a daily shot at showers and storms will continue across the west, but capping will keep it dry east of the Pecos River. The center of the upper ridge shifts east allowing for less subsidence this weekend and possibly a front entering the TX PH. Expect a continued shot for scattered storms across the higher terrain. Storms could form along the front to our north this weekend and move south, but large uncertainty exists as to how far south this activity will make it. Will keep the best chance of storms both Saturday and Sunday across the northern Permian Basin and SE NM, closer to the front. With better moisture in place, we will shave a few degrees off highs with most locations back into the 90s. Drier and hotter conditions return early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR prevails throughout the period. Winds are somewhat gusty at MAF throughout the afternoon, but gusts pick up this evening at all Texas terminals due to the LLJ. The gusty southeasterly winds diminish between 09-12z Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 103 77 103 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 78 104 77 101 / 20 20 20 10 Dryden 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 76 101 74 101 / 0 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 75 95 72 93 / 30 40 30 20 Hobbs 74 101 74 100 / 20 10 10 0 Marfa 68 96 65 96 / 20 50 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 76 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 76 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 79 104 77 104 / 10 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...16