Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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085 ACUS11 KWNS 262239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262238 INZ000-ILZ000-262345- Mesoscale Discussion 0989 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0538 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...central Illinois into west-central Indiana. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262238Z - 262345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and hail is increasing with new storms north of St Louis. A new WW may be needed. DISCUSSION...As of 2235 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a cluster of strong to severe storms (including a few supercells) has evolved along a cold front and remnant outflow boundary over eastern MO and west-central IL. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s F as the air mass has recovered in the wake of an expansive squall line earlier today. Steep mid-level lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the 60s to 70s F are supporting ~1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Favorable buoyancy and increasing lift ahead of the cold front/consolidating outflow should continue to support robust updrafts. 40-50 kt of vertical shear will also allow for storm organization into one or more clusters or bowing segments. Given the favorable parameter space and the potential for organized storms, the risk for damaging wind gusts and hail appears to be increasing. A new weather watch is likely. ..Lyons/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39559005 39928902 40128781 40118678 39918626 39598603 39198609 38938634 38678757 38658849 38728951 38779001 39559005